Poland’s Foreign Minister has warned of provocations by Putin
Sikorski made these remarks in an interview with *Il Messaggero*.
Radosław Sikorski pointed out that Poland has for many centuries assessed its security in the light of the threat posed by Russia. According to him, Warsaw cannot ignore Moscow’s threats, but does not currently see Russia as having sufficient resources to launch a direct attack.
Sikorski stated that Putin currently lacks the means to attack Poland. The most the Kremlin can do is attempt to stage a provocation.
The Polish minister also emphasised that, after many years of war, Russia has still not managed to fully capture the Donbas. This, in his view, demonstrates the true limits of Russia’s military capabilities.
Why Warsaw remains concerned
Despite his assessment that Russia lacks the necessary forces, Sikorski stated that risks remain.
He explained this by pointing out that Putin had already launched a war against Ukraine, based on miscalculations. According to the Polish minister, this decision has caused immense human suffering and serious economic losses across Europe.
That is precisely why Warsaw does not rule out the possibility that, even without any real chance of victory, Putin might take another such decision.
What is known about possible provocations against Poland
Sikorski also commented on reports that the US had warned Warsaw of a possible limited armed provocation by Russia against Poland in the coming months.
According to The Telegraph, the US has warned Poland that Moscow may attempt to test NATO’s readiness to respond through a hybrid or limited armed attack.
Sikorski stated that he could neither confirm nor deny this information. At the same time, he described it as plausible, given that it had been reported by a reputable publication.
What signal is Poland sending to Russia?
Poland’s Foreign Minister stated that Warsaw is publicly warning Moscow: its possible plans are known.
According to Sikorski, this approach had already been used prior to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, when the allies had revealed the Kremlin’s intentions in advance.
The Polish minister expressed the hope that publicly exposing these possible plans would help deter Russia from aggressive actions.
Sikorski stated that Poland takes defence seriously but is not in a state of panic.
He emphasised that, in the event of aggression, Poland would respond firmly to Russia even on its own. However, as the minister stressed, Poland is not alone — it has strong allies within NATO.
Sikorski specifically mentioned Italy as one of Poland’s partners.
What the Western media reported
Earlier, The Guardian reported that Russia may be preparing military or hybrid provocations against Poland or the Baltic states. The publication’s sources within NATO suggested that Moscow might be seeking a way to escalate tensions following Ukraine’s successful long-range strikes on targets in Russia.
Latvian intelligence also reported signs of preparations for possible Russian provocations against the Baltic states or Poland. At the same time, they do not expect a full-scale offensive, as Russia does not have sufficient available forces and equipment for this.
Sikorski’s statements indicate that Poland does not expect an immediate large-scale attack by Russia, but is preparing for less obvious scenarios — provocations, hybrid attacks or attempts to test NATO’s response.
This is also important for Ukraine, as Poland’s position directly affects the Alliance’s eastern flank, support for Kyiv and the overall policy of deterring Russia in Europe.
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