Ailing allies are causing Putin a headache over the risks of a change in power
Western media have published reports on the potential political consequences for Russia should there be a change of leadership in Chechnya and Belarus. The reports refer to news regarding the health of Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov and Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko.
The authors point out that for many years Moscow has maintained a special relationship with the Chechen leadership. Following the death of Akhmat Kadyrov, his son Ramzan took the helm of the republic with the Kremlin’s backing. In exchange for its loyalty, Chechnya received significant autonomy and financial support from the federal budget.
Observers see a similar model of interaction in the relationship between Vladimir Putin and Alexander Lukashenko. The article notes that Belarus remains a key ally of Russia, receiving financial support and investment in exchange for political and geopolitical cooperation.
Recently, reports of possible health problems affecting Ramzan Kadyrov have been widely discussed in the media. In particular, mention is made of his prolonged absence from certain official events and information from Ukrainian intelligence regarding possible kidney problems. Attention is also drawn to the growing role of his sons within Chechnya’s power structures. Akhmat Kadyrov holds the post of Deputy Head of the Republic’s Government, whilst Adam Kadyrov heads the Chechen Security Council.
The authors of the article suggest that a possible change of power in Chechnya could lead to a struggle between various influential groups for control of the region and federal subsidies.
The article also mentions reports regarding Alexander Lukashenko’s health. Among the signs noted by observers are problems with his voice, shortness of breath and the cancellation of certain public events due to illness.
According to the author of the article, Lukashenko is attempting to establish mechanisms that would allow him to maintain control over political processes even in the event of a change of power. At the same time, any changes in Belarus could affect the balance of power in relations between Minsk and Moscow.
The article also mentions the Belarusian opposition figure Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya. The author draws attention to her participation in international events attended by Ukrainian leaders.
Observers note that discussions are increasingly taking place in Russia regarding the consequences of the war against Ukraine and its impact on the domestic political situation. The term ‘stagnation’ is also mentioned, which some commentators use to characterise current developments in the country.
At the same time, the assessments and forecasts presented in the article reflect the author’s views and are not accompanied by official confirmation from the Russian authorities.
