In the US, there is now talk of the risks of a strategic defeat following a war with Iran
In the US, there are increasing warnings about the risks of strategic defeat following a war with Iran and the loss of American influence in the Persian Gulf, reports The Atlantic.
The current standoff with Iran could have far more serious consequences for Washington than previous military campaigns in Vietnam, Afghanistan or Iraq.
The authors believe that following the war, Iran is strengthening its position in the region, particularly through its control of the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, analysts estimate that the US’s role, as well as its authority among allies, is waning.
The US and Israel launched strikes against Iran for 37 days, destroying a significant portion of the country’s military infrastructure and leadership, but failed to achieve regime change or concessions from Tehran.
Following this, the administration of US President Donald Trump hoped to increase pressure by blocking Iranian ports.
At the same time, the article notes that Iran continued to strike energy infrastructure targets in the region. In particular, following Israel’s strike on the South Pars gas field, Iran attacked the Ras Laffan industrial complex in Qatar, which is the world’s largest liquefied natural gas export facility.
Following this, Donald Trump announced the cessation of strikes on Iran’s energy facilities and supported a ceasefire.
The authors of the article note that even in the event of further strikes, Iran retains the capability to launch missiles and drones, and strikes on the region’s oil and gas infrastructure could trigger a prolonged economic crisis.
The article also highlights that the US could face a shortage of precision-guided munitions following several weeks of intense combat operations.
Separately, the authors draw attention to the risks to the global energy market should Iran tighten its control over the Strait of Hormuz.
Tehran could use its control over the strait to exert political and economic pressure on other states, in particular by restricting the passage of cargo ships. Such a situation could strengthen the positions of China and Russia as Iran’s allies.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi previously stated that Iran retains a significant portion of its missile capabilities and is prepared for further confrontation.
At the same time, US allies in Europe and Asia are beginning to doubt Washington’s ability to guarantee stability in the region and ensure the security of global trade routes.
