The ISW has stated that the Kremlin is laying the groundwork for aggression against the Baltic states

This is stated in a report by the US Institute for the Study of War.

ISW analysts note that the Kremlin is conducting a series of information operations against the Baltic states. Their aim is to create long-term informational preconditions to justify potential future military action against these states.

The report draws attention to statements made on 23 April. On that date, the Russian Security Council accused the Lithuanian authorities of creating a “hotspot” near the border with the Kaliningrad Oblast of the Russian Federation.

The Russian Security Council also claimed that Lithuania was allegedly militarising under the pretext of a “Russian threat”.

On the same day, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko told the Russian state news agency RIA Novosti that NATO’s Joint Expeditionary Force exercises were allegedly rehearsing scenarios for a naval blockade and the capture of the Kaliningrad region.

Grushko also accused NATO of deliberately “escalating confrontation” with Russia.

“These statements are part of the Kremlin’s cognitive warfare aimed at falsely portraying NATO as an aggressor in response to the Kremlin’s military aggression in Ukraine,” the ISW report states.

Diplomats from Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania note that they have previously refuted such accusations and informed the Russian chargé d’affaires of this.

The ISW believes that the Kremlin is using such information campaigns to shape a narrative that Russia may need to justify future actions against the Baltic states.

Separately, analysts highlight the role of the Kaliningrad Oblast. In their assessment, the Kremlin is using its control over this Russian region to justify future aggression against the Baltic states or Poland under the pretext of ‘defending’ the Kaliningrad Oblast.

“The Kremlin is using, in particular, its control over the Kaliningrad region to justify future Russian aggression against the Baltic states or Poland under the pretext of protecting the Kaliningrad region,” the analysts noted.

Earlier this month, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated in an interview during a telethon that internet restrictions in Russia could be linked, in particular, to preparations for possible large-scale military scenarios involving Ukraine or the Baltic states.

The authorities in Lithuania and Estonia have stated that such assumptions do not correspond to their intelligence data and threat assessments.

In early April, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova warned the Baltic states of “consequences” if they “provided airspace” for Ukrainian strikes on Russian ports in the Baltic Sea.

Prior to this, there had been reports of Ukrainian drones – which Ukraine uses to strike targets in Russia – entering the airspace of the Baltic states and Finland.

In response to Russia’s threats to the Baltic states, the European Commission stated that an attack on one of the EU member states constitutes “an attack on the European Union as a whole”.

Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania denied any involvement in air strikes on Russian territory.

As reported by ThePublic, the 34th meeting of the Contact Group on Ukraine’s Defence in the “Ramstein” format began in Berlin on 15 April. The meeting is taking place in a hybrid format, with Ukrainian Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov, German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius, UK Defence Secretary John Gilley and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte attending in person.

Follow us on Telegram