Canada could break up: Alberta separatists are calling for a referendum

This is according to Newsweek.

Activists from the separatist movement Stay Free Alberta have submitted nearly 302,000 signatures to the Electoral Commission. This significantly exceeds the required minimum of 178,000 signatures. However, the path to a genuine expression of the will of the people remains difficult.

A judge has temporarily banned the verification of the signatures’ authenticity. Administrative barriers are currently preventing the official procedure from being launched, and provincial officials are awaiting the completion of the legal review. Only then will it be possible to discuss the next steps.

What is needed for a referendum

If the court lifts the restrictions, the Electoral Commission will begin verification immediately. After that, the provincial government will be able to approve the wording of the question and set a date for the vote. The tentative date is 19 October.

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has promised to hold the referendum provided all conditions are met. However, she does not support the idea of complete secession.

The provincial premier’s press secretary commented on the situation to Newsweek:

"Our government has made it clear: we support a strong and sovereign Alberta within a united Canada. This means that Alberta remains a province of Canada, whilst promoting provincial autonomy and fighting to overturn Ottawa’s policies that harm Albertans and violate our constitutional rights."

Opposition from Indigenous peoples

Canada’s Indigenous peoples have already spoken out against secession. Their lawyers argue that independence would undermine Indigenous treaty rights, which are protected under section 35 of the Canadian Constitution. Judge Shaina Leonard has allowed the collection of signatures but has blocked their verification until the merits of the case have been heard.

The provincial government is trying to strike a balance. Minister for Indigenous Affairs Raja Soni noted:

“The Constitution is the supreme law of the land. The protection of Indigenous peoples’ rights must remain in force regardless of political debates on autonomy.”

What are the chances of Alberta seceding?

Bookmakers and prediction markets are sceptical about the separatists’ success. As of yesterday, the estimates are as follows:

• the Kalshi platform puts the chances of a referendum taking place at 19.3 per cent;
• Polymarket puts the figure even lower – at just 14 per cent.

For now, the separatists are celebrating an interim victory with the collection of signatures, but the actual withdrawal of the province from the country remains a major question mark. Overall, the attempt itself has already become the most high-profile political challenge for the Canadian authorities in recent decades, the publication concludes.

What other separatist movements are there in Canada and the US

Canada

The Bloc Québécois and the Parti Québécois. They are demanding full sovereignty for the French-speaking province of Quebec. Their main arguments are the protection of the French language and unique culture. The province has already held two referendums, and in 1995, supporters of unity fell just 1% short of victory.

The Buffalo Party (Saskatchewan). Separatists from the province of Saskatchewan are demanding a significant expansion of autonomy or complete secession. Their aim is independent control over natural resources and freedom from federal laws, which they consider harmful to farmers.

USA

Texas Nationalist Movement (Texit). One of the most high-profile movements in the US. Supporters of ‘Texit’ are demanding that Texas become an independent state. Their arguments include the constitutional right to secession, the desire to independently secure the border with Mexico, and to keep all tax revenue within the state.

Yes California (Calexit). A movement for California to secede from the US. Activists believe that the state is the world’s fifth-largest economy and can thrive on its own. They aim to build a progressive country that will not be dependent on political squabbles in Washington and ‘outdated’ federal laws.

Alaskan Independence Party. They are calling for a referendum on the state’s status. Their main goal is to restore Alaska’s status as an independent territory or, at the very least, to gain full ownership of all the region’s land and resources, which are currently controlled by the federal government.

New Hampshire Independence Movement (NH Independence). A relatively young but aggressive group. They are promoting the idea of a peaceful secession from the US. Their platform is based on libertarian values: minimal taxation, no state interference in citizens’ lives, and complete financial independence from the federal government.

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