Moscow is looking for a way to bring 'its' campaign to a close without it looking like a defeat – WP
The Washington Post reports this, citing Russian and Western analysts.
According to the publication’s estimates, Russia is entering the second half of 2026 with a budget deficit that has already reached approximately 11 trillion roubles, or around $150 billion. At the same time, the war continues to demand ever-increasing resources, and personnel losses remain extremely high.
Yannis Klug, an economist at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, notes that the brunt of the financial crisis is being felt by Russian regions, whose budgets have come under severe pressure due to military spending.
Another problem for the Kremlin is the situation on the front line. Tatyana Stanova, a senior research fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Foundation, believes that Russia’s advantage is gradually diminishing, whilst Ukraine is expanding the scale and geography of its strikes.
“Russia’s military advantage is beginning to dissipate, whilst Ukraine is expanding the scope and intensity of its strikes. All this creates the impression that events are not unfolding as Putin would like,” Stanova noted.
Meanwhile, the Kremlin has stated that Russia is ready to end hostilities in Ukraine within the day if Kyiv agrees to withdraw its troops “from Russian territories”. This was stated by Kremlin spokesperson Peskov.
“The war could be over by the end of the day. To achieve this, Zelenskyy must order his armed forces to leave Russian territory,” said Peskov. He was commenting on remarks by the Ukrainian president, who had suggested the possibility of ending the military conflict before winter sets in.
Meanwhile, the Russian government is preparing for severe austerity measures. Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov recently announced future cuts to civilian spending to fund defence:
“Our reserves are not unlimited,” said the head of the Russian Ministry of Finance.
There is now a sense of unease even within the Russian political system. State Duma deputy Valery Hartung publicly asked whether the authorities might have to start the printing press to cover the budget deficit. Such statements have evoked memories of the hyperinflation of the early 1990s, which devalued the savings of millions of Russians.
Alongside the financial problems, a manpower crisis in the army is also intensifying. According to analysts, losses on the front line amount to tens of thousands of soldiers every month.
Opposition politician Mikhail Khodorkovsky claims that the widespread use of drones has made the evacuation of the wounded significantly more difficult, and that many soldiers are no longer returning to active duty after being wounded.
Against this backdrop, European officials suggest that following the autumn parliamentary elections, the Kremlin will be forced to announce a new wave of mobilisation.
Other experts believe that a more likely scenario is that Putin will attempt to secure a pause in the war, as the current level of expenditure is becoming increasingly difficult to sustain.
Sir Alex Younger, former head of the British foreign intelligence service MI6, believes that Russia may simply “run out of steam”.
“There may come a point when Russian military activity loses its strategic significance due to the simple exhaustion of resources,” he noted.
According to Russian financial authorities, the federal budget deficit for the first four months of 2026 has already reached $82 billion, exceeding the initial annual target by almost 50%. Meanwhile, the Russian Ministry of Defence is requesting an additional 3 trillion roubles to cover its own needs.
As a reminder, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy previously stated that the “hot phase” of the war could end by the end of 2026.
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