Putin’s inner circle is urging him to end the war against Ukraine
Following the Victory Day parade, Vladimir Putin met with Second World War veterans and stated that the war against Ukraine could come to an end in the near future. At the same time, the Russian president spoke of a possible Russian victory and made no mention of compromises.
Such statements may indicate the influence of a section of his inner circle that is trying to persuade the Kremlin to end the war.
Some in Putin’s inner circle consider the war to be unprofitable
The war has effectively reached a stalemate, although Russian troops continue a slow advance towards Kramatorsk and Sloviansk.
Meanwhile, the economic and political costs of the war are mounting within Russia. Some members of the Russian Presidential Administration believe that continuing the fighting will no longer yield the expected results.
One Russian political journalist stated that spending another year and hundreds of thousands of lives to capture cities that will be reduced to ruins “makes no sense” to some officials. According to the publication, a report on the risks of continuing the so-called “special military operation” was prepared for the Russian Presidential Administration in February.
The document spoke of the need to “know when to stop”. The authors of the report also warned that continuing the war could turn into a “Pyrrhic victory”. The report considered the possibility of freezing the front line even without the complete capture of Donbas. This was proposed as proof that “Putin had broken the West” and thwarted its plans.
There is no unified position within the Kremlin
Survey data has also emerged in Russia indicating a decline in Vladimir Putin’s approval rating. His support level is estimated at 65.6%. The authors note that this is the lowest figure since the start of the war.
Furthermore, the United Russia party has published recommendations for its representatives ahead of the parliamentary elections on how to respond to difficult questions from voters.
Some Russian officials are calling for a reduction in casualties and an immediate end to the war. Others, including Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, believe that Ukraine must withdraw its troops from the last part of Donbas under Kyiv’s control.
At the same time, representatives of the security establishment and Russian nationalists are calling for the fighting to continue. Some ultra-nationalists are advocating an escalation of the war. Among them is the Russian political analyst Sergei Karaganov, who has previously called for the use of tactical nuclear weapons.
Putin is not yet showing any willingness to compromise
Vladimir Putin traditionally postpones difficult decisions and is currently likely awaiting the results of the new Russian offensive. The Kremlin may continue attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure into the winter, hoping to affect the morale of Ukrainians.
At the same time, journalists have noted a shift in the Russian president’s rhetoric. For several years, Putin refused to recognise the legitimacy of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and used derogatory language towards him.
However, recently the Russian president has begun referring to him as “Mr Zelenskyy”.
