Putin wants to end the war by the end of the year by capturing the Donbas, but the Russians are unable to advance
According to Bloomberg, Ukraine and its allies believe that the Russian invasion is gradually losing momentum. Kyiv, the agency notes, has managed to stabilise the front line and repel the Russian forces’ spring offensive.
The report states that Ukraine is making more active use of drones, inflicting significant losses on Russian forces and carrying out strikes not only near the front line but also deep within Russian territory. According to Bloomberg, this is fuelling domestic criticism of Russian President Vladimir Putin.
The agency also notes that against the backdrop of an economic slowdown and internet restrictions in Russia, war fatigue is growing among the population. According to Bloomberg’s sources, similar sentiments are also present among parts of the Russian elite.
The agency’s sources claim that Vladimir Putin wants to end the war by the end of the year, but only on terms that the Kremlin would consider a victory. Specifically, this involves full control over Donbas and a broader security agreement with Europe that would effectively recognise Russia’s territorial gains. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov denied reports of any alleged deadlines for ending the war.
The situation on the front line and the role of drones
Ukraine is also preparing for a possible new Russian offensive this summer. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had previously warned of the risk of an attack from the Bryansk region and Belarus, following the pattern of the first weeks of the full-scale invasion.
Meanwhile, according to DeepState, by mid-May Ukrainian forces had managed to stabilise most of the front line following the intensification of fighting in the spring.
Finnish President Alexander Stubb stated last month that the casualty ratio is approximately one Ukrainian soldier to five Russian soldiers. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio also described the Ukrainian army as “Europe’s most powerful armed force” in an interview with Fox News on 13 May.
Ukrainian Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov stated that Ukraine had significantly slowed the advance of Russian troops and was gradually regaining the initiative. According to him, in April, around 35,203 Russian soldiers were killed or seriously wounded.
Fedorov also announced that Ukraine plans to increase pay for military personnel, particularly the infantry, improve the efficiency of troop deployment, and expand the use of drones.
A war of attrition and the challenges facing both sides
Despite the stabilisation of the front line, Ukraine has not achieved its strategic objectives; in particular, it has not regained most of the occupied territories nor moved closer to a peace agreement within the framework of negotiations involving the US.
Russia, for its part, continues its massive missile and drone strikes on Ukraine. According to the UN, the number of civilian deaths in April was the highest since July 2025.
The report also states that Ukraine continues to face a shortage of missiles for the American Patriot systems, which remain the primary means of intercepting Russian ballistic missiles.
Nigel Gould Davis, a senior research fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, stated that in order to continue the war, the Kremlin will likely have to carry out another partial mobilisation within the next 12 months.
