Russia could attack the Baltic states with drones, warns the Commander-in-Chief of the Latvian Armed Forces
The Commander of the Latvian National Armed Forces, General Kaspars Pudans, has stated that Russia has gained an advantage over NATO countries in the field of drone technology thanks to its ability to rapidly scale up production and adapt equipment in wartime conditions, according to the Financial Times.
According to him, Moscow’s advantage lies not in superior technology, but in the scale of production. The Russian side is capable of rapidly replenishing its stocks of drones and deploying them in large numbers.
Poudans noted that in the event of a direct confrontation between Russia and NATO, the Baltic states could become one of the potential flashpoints. He believes that Russia may attempt to exploit the period leading up to the completion of European armies’ modernisation programmes, most of which are not expected to yield results until around 2029.
The general suggested that, from the Kremlin’s perspective, any action could be considered by the end of 2028.
Last year, NATO countries agreed to increase defence spending to 5% of GDP by 2035. Of this figure, 3.5% is to be allocated to core military needs, with a further 1.5% going towards infrastructure that could be used during wartime.
Some officials from NATO’s eastern flank countries have also expressed concern that Russia may attempt to test the Alliance’s readiness sooner than expected. Among the factors they cite are the limited time frame of Donald Trump’s presidency and the increase in defence spending by European states.
Pudans emphasised that the war in Ukraine has provided Russia with practical experience in the field of unmanned technologies. According to him, both Ukraine and Russia are rapidly implementing new solutions and testing them directly on the battlefield.
At the same time, he cautioned against assumptions that future wars would unfold according to a different scenario. The general noted that neither Russia nor Ukraine had planned to wage a protracted war of attrition in the format currently being observed.
Despite this, NATO retains an advantage over Russia in conventional weapons, particularly in aviation. However, according to Poudans, the Alliance is still facing difficulties in increasing defence spending, developing industrial capacity and deploying new capabilities on its eastern flank.
He also emphasised that Russia currently lacks sufficient forces for a large-scale invasion whilst the war against Ukraine continues. At the same time, this threat could grow once hostilities have ended.
Pudans distinguished between the risks of potential hybrid attacks – including sabotage, cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns – and the prospect of a direct military attack. According to him, Latvia operates on the assumption that aggression in one form or another could occur at any time.
