Russia may attempt to attack Europe in the very near future
Sweden’s Parliamentary Defence Committee stated in its report that Russia may attempt to test NATO’s unity and the Alliance’s commitment to the principle of collective defence by launching a military attack in the relatively near future.
The document notes that such actions could take place if the Kremlin deems the political conditions favourable, even in the absence of the traditional balance of power that is usually considered necessary to launch an attack.
The report discusses a reassessment of how quickly Moscow could open a new front alongside the war against Ukraine. It was previously thought that, once the war ended, Russia would need several years to rebuild its military capabilities.
At the same time, Swedish military intelligence noted in a recent report that Russia already has the capability to carry out a limited armed attack outside Ukraine.
The document emphasises that key components of the Russian armed forces remained relatively intact during the war. In particular, this refers to capabilities for waging hybrid warfare, air and naval forces, as well as long-range strike assets.
It also notes that Russia is forming new military units, particularly in the Western Leningrad Military District, and continues to build up its military presence on the Kola Peninsula and in the Arctic.
Sweden became NATO’s newest member, joining the Alliance in 2024. The country submitted its application for membership alongside neighbouring Finland following the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
In addition to assessing Russia’s actions, the parliamentary committee drew attention to changes in relations between Europe and the United States since the publication of the previous report in 2024.
The document notes that US foreign and security policy under the current administration is increasingly characterised by unpredictability, rapid changes, a transactional approach, harsher rhetoric and a greater willingness to use military force unilaterally.
