Russia's oil and gas revenues could rise by 39% in May due to the war in Iran
Russia’s federal budget revenue from oil and gas in May 2026 could rise by 39% compared with the same period last year, reaching around 700 billion roubles, or 9.8 billion dollars.
This is according to Reuters calculations.
The rise is attributed to the increase in global oil prices, which occurred against the backdrop of the conflict surrounding Iran.
At the same time, a decline in revenues of approximately 17% is expected compared to April. This is linked to cyclical income tax payments, as well as an increase in state subsidies to Russian oil refineries in the form of excise tax rebates and damping payments.
Oil and gas revenues account for about a fifth of all revenues to the Russian Federation’s budget and remain the Kremlin’s main source of funding.
Reuters notes that the financial burden on the Russian budget has increased since the start of the full-scale war against Ukraine in February 2022 due to significant defence and security spending.
According to the agency’s estimates, between January and May, Russia’s federal budget revenues from oil and gas fell by about a third year-on-year, amounting to around 3 trillion roubles.
The Russian Federation’s budget for 2026 forecasts oil and gas revenues at 8.92 trillion roubles. Total budget revenues this year are expected to reach 40.283 trillion roubles.
In 2025, Russian budget revenues from oil and gas fell by 24% to 8.48 trillion roubles. This was the lowest figure since 2020.
Reuters also names Russia as one of the main beneficiaries of the war surrounding Iran, which began in late February. Russia remains the world’s third-largest oil producer and exporter after the US and Saudi Arabia.
