The Kremlin is seeking a way out of the war amid military and economic difficulties
The Russian leadership has come under increasing pressure due to the course of the war against Ukraine. Among the reasons cited are the slowdown in offensive operations on the front line, a reduction in financial resources, and the consequences of regular strikes by Ukrainian drones on targets within Russian territory, reports the Washington Post.
Against this backdrop, Russian officials have recently stepped up their harsh rhetoric towards Ukraine and Western countries. Following the latest strikes on Kyiv, Russian officials also called on foreign representatives to leave the Ukrainian capital.
Following the incident involving a Russian drone that crashed into a residential building in Romania, Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council, stated that this was “merely the first warning sign” for European Union countries.
European officials believe that Moscow’s increasingly aggressive rhetoric may be linked to military and economic difficulties, as well as a desire to resume negotiations on terms favourable to the Kremlin.
An article published in the journal Russia in Global Affairs attracted further attention. The author, Russian scholar Vasily Kashin, concluded that the war’s initial objectives had become unattainable. In his view, Western aid to Ukraine and Ukrainian mobilisation are preventing Russia from achieving a decisive advantage.
Kashin noted that the complete elimination of what he calls the ‘anti-Russian regime’ is possible only under the condition of a prolonged military occupation of the entire territory of Ukraine, which, in his assessment, is technically impossible for Russia.
Some European officials have expressed concern over the possibility of Russian aggression spreading beyond Ukraine’s borders. At the same time, Vladimir Putin has dismissed such suggestions, calling them untrue.
Analysts estimate that Ukrainian drone strikes are increasingly affecting Russian logistics, particularly the routes connecting Russia with the occupied territories in southern Ukraine and Crimea. There are also reports of fuel supply problems on the peninsula.
The publication’s sources among Russian and European experts believe that the Kremlin is seeking ways to regain the initiative ahead of the summer campaign, which may prove more difficult than previously expected.
Tetyana Stanova, a senior research fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Foundation, noted that Russia’s military advantage is gradually diminishing, whilst Ukraine is expanding the scale of its strikes on Russian territory.
The economic situation is putting additional pressure on the Kremlin. According to Janis Klug, an economist at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, significant military expenditure, a decline in civilian sector revenues, sanctions and high interest rates are contributing to a growing budget deficit.
Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov stated that the government is preparing large-scale spending cuts across almost all sectors, except for defence and social services. He also emphasised that the country’s reserves are not unlimited.
Against the backdrop of mounting losses on the front line, Russia is facing difficulties in replenishing its personnel. Some European officials suggest that Moscow may be forced to make difficult decisions regarding the future manning of its army.
At the same time, some Western officials believe that Russia may be forced to suspend active offensive operations due to the difficulty of maintaining the current pace of the war.
