Ukraine is defeating the aggressor ‘on all fronts’, which could lead to the collapse of Russia
Moscow parade without tanks and heightened security measures
This year’s Victory Day parade on 9 May in Moscow took place without tanks or other heavy military equipment on Red Square, writes The Economist.
The Russian authorities deemed it too risky to deploy armoured vehicles and missile systems in the areas where the parade was being prepared, due to the threat of attacks by Ukrainian drones.
Mobile internet was shut down ahead of the events in Moscow and St Petersburg. A significant number of air defence systems were also deployed to the capital from other regions of Russia.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy issued a decree ‘authorising’ the parade and stated that Red Square would not be attacked. This came after agreements on a three-day ceasefire brokered by the US. By 10 May, both sides had accused each other of violating the truce.
After the parade, Vladimir Putin stated that, in his opinion, the war was “drawing to a close”.
Russia lost territory in April
The publication notes that, for the first time in almost three years, the initiative in the war has begun to shift in Ukraine’s favour.
Russia’s anticipated spring offensive failed to yield results. In April, Russian troops suffered a net loss of territory for the first time since August 2024. At that time, Ukrainian forces entered the Kursk region of the Russian Federation.
According to calculations based on maps from the Institute for the Study of War, Russia has lost control of 113 square kilometres over the last 30 days.
Among the reasons for Ukraine’s successes, the Institute for the Study of War cites counterattacks by the Defence Forces, medium-range strikes, the cessation of Russia’s illegal use of Starlink terminals in Ukraine, and restrictions on Telegram’s operation within Russia itself.
Lawrence Friedman, a professor of military studies at King’s College London, stated that the situation in the war resembles a turning point.
“If the Russians fail to achieve results after all their efforts, I wouldn’t be surprised if things start to unravel in certain areas,” he said.
Russian military losses and the role of FPV drones
It is estimated that the Russian army is losing around 35,000 troops every month. The total number of dead and seriously wounded since the start of the invasion is approaching 1.4 million.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated in March that Russia is losing almost two killed for every one wounded.
The report states that up to 80% of casualties are now caused by FPV drones. These drones, equipped with explosives, attack soldiers and complicate the evacuation of the wounded.
Seth Jones, an analyst at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, stated that Russian wounded are often left on the battlefield.
Russian military personnel are also complaining about new Ukrainian autonomous drones, which use artificial intelligence and are controlled via fibre-optic cables to bypass electronic warfare systems.
On 7 April, Alexei Chadayev, director of the Russian drone development centre in Veliky Novgorod, wrote that Russia had “lost its leadership” in the field of unmanned aerial vehicles over the past six months.
He also reported on logistical problems near the front line. Due to the threat of drone strikes, Russia has restricted the movement of convoys in the Donetsk region. No more than two lorries are allowed to travel together.
Ukraine is stepping up strikes on Russia’s rear
Ukraine has also intensified its medium-range drone strikes on Russian military targets.
Targets include ammunition depots, drone storage sites, command posts, air defence systems, radars and areas where equipment and troops are concentrated.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that purchases of such systems this year have already exceeded the total for the whole of 2025 by five times.
In March, Ukraine surpassed Russia for the first time in the number of long-range drone strikes.
Strikes are being carried out on military and economic targets at a distance of almost 2,000 kilometres from the Ukrainian border. It is estimated that around 70% of Russia’s population is now within range of Ukrainian drones.
On 25 April, four Russian fighter jets were damaged in a strike on the Shagol airfield in the southern Urals.
In early May, an oil refinery and a pumping station in Perm caught fire. Russian oil infrastructure and export terminals are coming under attack with increasing frequency.
According to Reuters, strikes on ports and oil refineries in April forced Russia to cut oil production to 400,000 barrels per day.
On 29 April, Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that the ports of Novorossiysk and Ust-Luga were operating at 38% and 43% below capacity respectively.
Problems with Russian air defence
Due to the vastness of the territory and Ukraine’s prolonged campaign to destroy Russia’s air defence systems, it is becoming increasingly difficult to defend key facilities.
Seth Jones stated that Russia is unable to effectively shield territories from drone strikes and lacks sufficient point-defence systems.
Meanwhile, Ukraine has developed several types of interceptor drones, which are estimated to shoot down around 95% of Russian Shahed-type drones.
Russia, according to analysts, is lagging behind in developing similar systems.
Lawrence Friedman stated that the coming months will show whether Russia can respond to Ukraine’s advantages in the drone sphere and whether it is preparing a new large-scale offensive in the summer.
“Russia is struggling on the front line, and very few things are going its way at the moment,” he said.
Seth Jones also said: “It is hard to see how the situation could improve for Russia. If reporting to Putin, the picture looks rather bleak.”
