Ukrainian drones have changed the course of the war: even Russia acknowledges their superiority — ISW

This is stated in a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

The superiority of Ukrainian drones is thwarting the Russian Federation’s offensive

Analysts note that Ukraine has significantly intensified its medium-range strike campaign against Russian logistics, military equipment and manpower since late 2025 and particularly in early 2026, which has hindered Russia’s advance across the entire theatre of operations and is likely also hampering the Russian offensive in the spring and summer of 2026.

ISW has obtained geolocation evidence that Ukrainian forces carried out 41 medium-range strikes in January 2026, 61 in February 2026 and 115 in March 2026.

These Ukrainian strikes were largely directed against Russian forces and assets in eastern and southern Ukraine, particularly near occupied Donetsk, which has hampered Russia’s preparations for offensive operations in recent weeks and months.

Analysts noted that, according to figures released on 9 April by the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Oleksandr Syrskyi, Ukrainian drone forces are carrying out over 11,000 combat sorties per day and struck over 150,000 verified targets in March 2026 alone – 50 per cent more than in February 2026.

He noted that Ukrainian forces carried out over 350 medium-range strikes, including 143 against Russian logistics facilities and depots, 52 against command posts, and 20 against oil, gas and energy infrastructure facilities.

What is being said about Ukrainian drones in Russia

Even within the Russian information sphere, changes on the battlefield are beginning to be acknowledged. Russian propaganda sources report on the growing influence of Ukrainian technologies and tactics, including elements of air superiority achieved through the use of drones.

Experts write that, according to a Russian military blogger, Russian Defence Minister Andrei Belousov told dictator Vladimir Putin that Ukraine has a “significant” technological advantage in the drone war on the front line.

“Belousov reportedly stated that the situation is ‘critical’ for Russian forces, as Ukraine has both a numerical advantage in drones and has developed a new ‘generation of equipment’. Belousov reportedly told Putin that Ukraine is using “more sophisticated systems” for which Russian forces are “largely unprepared” to counter,” the article states.

It is reported that the Kremlin is already considering the development of its own drone technologies as one of its key priorities.

However, the ISW stresses that the veracity of these statements cannot be independently confirmed.

Nevertheless, it is clear that Ukraine’s technological advantage is becoming one of the key factors in the war, shifting the balance of power and complicating Russia’s further offensive plans, analysts note.