The war between Russia and Ukraine could escalate against the backdrop of the conflict with Iran
Russian troops are gradually being pushed out of Kupiansk by Ukrainian forces, according to two sources in Moscow familiar with the situation. Vladimir Putin had previously claimed the city had been captured, but Volodymyr Zelenskyy denied this at the time. This is reported by The Public, citing Bloomberg. This comes as both sides prepare for an intensification of hostilities with the onset of spring.
The situation on the front line remains static. Russian troops have made minor advances in certain areas, whilst Ukrainian forces are advancing in other areas, but neither side has achieved a decisive breakthrough.
The sides are attempting to limit each other’s capabilities to a depth of 300 kilometres in order to complicate the supply and deployment of reinforcements.
The prospects for a diplomatic settlement remain slim. Negotiations involving the US have effectively stalled, and President Donald Trump’s attention is focused on the conflict with Iran.
Russia is preparing for a new offensive campaign; however, according to sources, significant advances are not expected due to Ukraine’s defence system, particularly the use of drones.
Ukraine expects an intensification of Russian attacks in April and May on Sloviansk and Kramatorsk in the Donetsk region, but Russia may not have sufficient forces to capture them. According to the Kremlin’s estimates, the main military objective for 2026 is full control of the Donbas and the capture of additional territories to strengthen its negotiating position. Ukraine, for its part, aims to inflict losses on Russia that exceed the rate of mobilisation. Kyiv has set a target of 50,000 Russian military casualties per month, but has not yet reached this figure. On 17 March, Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that Russia is mobilising up to 45,000 people per month, and that over the last three months, Russian military losses have amounted to around 100,000 killed and wounded.
The US has told its allies that it still believes the parties can return to negotiations, but for now they remain far from a compromise. Rising oil prices against the backdrop of the war in the Middle East are providing Russia with additional revenue to fund the war. At the same time, Ukraine faces the risk of a reduction in US arms supplies.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited countries in the Middle East and signed defence agreements with Saudi Arabia and Qatar, as well as agreements on the supply of diesel fuel. Ukraine continues to attack Russian infrastructure. According to the Russian Security Council, over 23,000 air strikes were carried out in 2025, almost four times more than in 2024.
Sergei Shoigu, Secretary of the Russian Security Council, stated that no region of Russia can now be considered completely safe. Ukrainian strikes are also targeting oil transport infrastructure, in particular the ports of Primorsk and Ust-Luga.
Analysts note that Russia’s rising revenues could bolster its military capabilities, whilst the Ukrainian army’s adaptation allows it to hold its ground and inflict significant losses on the enemy.
