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Should we brace ourselves for an extreme heatwave or not? What kind of weather can we expect in the summer of 2026?

Should we brace ourselves for an extreme heatwave or not? What kind of weather can we expect in the summer of 2026?

05 May 2026, 19:16

Should we brace ourselves for an extreme heatwave or not? What kind of weather can we expect in the summer of 2026? — The weather in the summer of 2026

It has finally warmed up in Ukraine, so we can finally put night-time frosts behind us. The media are reporting that the summer of 2026 could see unprecedented temperature anomalies. However, meteorologists are urging people not to panic.

LB.ua, citing a report by the World Meteorological Organisation, reports that global temperatures between 2026 and 2029 will remain at record highs. There is an 80% probability that at least one of these years will be the hottest on record.

The El Niño phase may also begin shortly – a climatic phenomenon involving an abnormal rise in surface water temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean of 5–9°C, which occurs every 2–7 years and can last up to a year. During this period, heatwaves, floods, droughts and other extreme weather events are recorded across the globe.

A number of Ukrainian media outlets have published news stories with headlines about an ‘abnormally hot summer’, but the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Centre has urged people not to make premature predictions.

“At present, we are only discussing the probable development of ENSO: neutral conditions prevail, and the chance of an El Niño is around 40%. This is not a weather forecast, but a global climate signal. At the same time, our forecasters at the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Centre emphasise that it is too early to draw conclusions about the summer, and there is no direct link between fluctuations in the surface temperature of the Pacific Ocean in its central and eastern equatorial regions and the weather in Ukraine. “A certain indirect correlation can be observed, but it requires more detailed study and analysis by scientists,” wrote the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Centre on its page.

Vira Balabukh, head of the Department of Applied Meteorology and Climatology (Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Institute of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine and the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine), PhD in Geography, writes that it is unwise for Ukrainians to focus on El Niño. This process occurs in the equatorial latitudes of the Pacific Ocean, far too far from us, and has a significant impact on the American continent, Australia, and the eastern part of Eurasia, close to the Pacific coast. For Europe, this connection is much weaker, and for Ukraine, even less so.

What will the weather be like in Ukraine in the summer of 2026?

According to calculations by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, a warm summer is expected in Ukraine. Vira Balabukh says that the exact air temperature can only be predicted a few days in advance.

‘According to calculations by global forecasting centres, the average monthly air temperature is expected to be 1–2 degrees higher than the current climatic norm, whilst seasonal rainfall is likely to be within the norm. As for rainfall, unfortunately, such forecasts do not allow us to say exactly how precipitation will be distributed throughout the season. If, for example, a single rainfall at a particular location amounts to 3.5 times the monthly average and this is the only rainfall of the summer, then the total rainfall will be above average, although in reality there will be a severe drought,” says Vira Balabukh.

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