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Has a second "Oreshnik" been shot down over the occupiers' territory? The ISW has provided details and highlighted the Russian Federation's problems

Has a second "Oreshnik" been shot down over the occupiers' territory? The ISW has provided details and highlighted the Russian Federation's problems

26 May 2026, 16:17

Has a second — The launch of the "Oreshnik" from the Kapustin Yar test site

Russia may have launched not one but two "Oreshnik" medium-range ballistic missiles on the night of 24 May. One of them malfunctioned and is believed to have crashed in the occupied Donetsk region.

This is stated in a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

What the analysts found

As noted by the ISW, Ukrainian OSINT sources reported on 25 May that a video had emerged which may show the launch of a second ‘Oreshnik’ missile during the attack on the night of 24 May.

The footage allegedly shows six submunitions falling. One Ukrainian OSINT source suggested that the missile may have struck Russian positions near the occupied towns of Avdiivka or Yasynuvata – approximately 40 kilometres from the front line.

If this data is confirmed, it would mean that one in four "Oreshnik" missiles used by the Russian army in the war against Ukraine was malfunctioning.

How much did the 24 May attack on Ukraine cost the Russians?

According to estimates by the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence’s news agency “ArmyInform”, Russia’s combined strike on 23–24 May cost around $361 million, of which approximately $50 million was accounted for by a single “Oreshnik” missile.

If the launch of a second missile is confirmed, the total cost of the attack will rise to approximately $411 million.

The attack on 24 May: what is known

As a reminder, on the night of 24 May, the Russians launched a massive combined strike on Ukraine, using, according to the Air Force, 90 missiles and 600 drones of various types, including the “Oreshnik”.

The launch was carried out from the Kapustin Yar test site, and strikes were recorded in the Bila Tserkva area in the Kyiv region.

Meanwhile, information circulated online claiming that the Russians had launched two “Oreshniks” that night: one struck Bila Tserkva, whilst the other fell within the occupied Donetsk region.

However, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have denied this. Air Force spokesperson Yuriy Ignat stated that only one launch of the "Oreshnik" has been officially confirmed so far – in the Kyiv region.

According to him, there is currently no confirmed information regarding a possible strike by an "Oreshnik" on Russian military positions in the occupied territories.

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