ISW warns of risk of radiological incident in Ukraine due to Russian actions
The Institute for the Study of War report notes that the Kremlin may blame Ukraine for a Moscow-caused radiological incident to convince Western countries not to support Kyiv or to influence the willingness of Ukrainians to resist.
Analysts point to unfounded claims by Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service that Britain and France are allegedly trying to transfer a dirty bomb or nuclear weapons to Ukraine. According to experts, such statements may be part of the rhetoric of nuclear escalation and an attempt to divert attention from the anniversary of Russia's war against Ukraine.
Russian officials have called the actions of the United Kingdom and France unacceptable to Moscow and a threat to the security of the Russian Federation. The report also mentions direct nuclear threats against these countries, which are leading negotiations within the Coalition of the Willing on security guarantees for post-war Ukraine.
ISW experts suggest that Moscow may either cause or allow a radiological incident on Ukrainian territory and then accuse Kyiv of using nuclear or radiological weapons. According to analysts, such actions may be aimed at weakening Western support for Ukraine and influencing the morale of society.
The document also notes that Russian troops regularly attack Ukrainian energy infrastructure, including facilities related to nuclear power. Such strikes could create the risk of both deliberate and accidental radiological incidents.
