Legal cigarette manufacturers have not seen any impact from the ESBU’s work, as the black market is growing, according to Forbes
This is reported in an article by Forbes Ukraine.
Journalists note that, according to a Kantar Ukraine survey conducted in April, the proportion of counterfeit products reached almost 20 per cent, compared with 14.1 per cent in February last year. This means that one in every five packets in Ukraine is now illegal.
For their part, representatives of official cigarette manufacturers claim that the ESBU is not effective enough. In particular, Vadym Novosad, Director of Corporate and Legal Affairs at Imperial Brands Ukraine, believes that the impact of the agency’s latest raids has been negligible.
His view is shared by Oleg Getman of the EEP, who notes that instead of one large factory, ten illegal production facilities could appear on the market, operating out of ‘garages’ with a combined annual turnover of billions.
The ESBU attributes its low effectiveness to the lack of regional offices in areas where the black market for cigarettes is thriving. However, according to Kantar, 68 per cent of all illicit production is concentrated in seven regions, of which the Economic Security Bureau’s regional offices have been operating in Odesa, Lviv, Kyiv and the surrounding regions almost since the institution’s inception.
The Economic Security Bureau also describes Kantar’s study as premature.
“It is premature to estimate the exact percentage of the illegal tobacco market based solely on current sociological or calculated indicators,” the Bureau stated in its response to a query from Forbes Ukraine.
Previously, the Verkhovna Rada Committee on Finance, Tax and Customs Policy had also highlighted the low effectiveness of the Economic Security Bureau. In particular, MP Danylo Getmantsev noted a deterioration in the performance of the revamped Economic Security Bureau and a halt to the process of bringing the economy out of the shadows.
“Whilst the shadow market for cigarettes stood at 12.6 per cent in October 2024, by the end of 2025 this figure had already reached 17.8 per cent. In effect, all the achievements and progress made by the tax and law enforcement authorities in 2024 were undone during 2025,”the committee’s decision stated, following a hearing on the ESBU’s 2025 activity report and the state of the country’s economic de-shadowing.
