Marco Rubio is strengthening his influence within Donald Trump’s team amid military decisions
Just ten years ago, Marco Rubio called Donald Trump a fraud, and Trump responded by mocking him. Today, their relationship has changed. As Secretary of State, Marco Rubio is demonstrating his loyalty to the president, whilst Donald Trump claims he could become the best Secretary of State in history, writes The Economist.
Marco Rubio has become one of the president’s key allies and actively supports a tougher foreign policy. In January, he stood by Trump’s side during the operation in Venezuela, and in February during the strikes on Iran. Vice-President J.D. Vance, who holds more isolationist views, was not by the president’s side at the time.
Should the current military operations be successfully concluded, Marco Rubio could strengthen his position ahead of the 2028 presidential election. In private conversations, Donald Trump discusses potential Republican candidates with donors, including Marco Rubio and JD Vance.
According to the Polymarket betting market, Marco Rubio’s gap behind J.D. Vance has narrowed. At the same time, YouGov polls for The Economist show that J.D. Vance enjoys higher levels of support among Republicans.
Marco Rubio already has experience of winning against the odds. During the 2010 Senate election, he trailed his opponent by 30 points but ultimately won. His campaign was built on the story of his family, Cuban immigrants who moved to the US without knowing the language or having financial resources.
He served in the Senate for 14 years and was confirmed as Secretary of State unanimously. Marco Rubio became the first person since Henry Kissinger to simultaneously hold the post of National Security Advisor. He also heads USAID and, until recently, led the National Archives.
Despite this, his influence is limited. Some foreign policy decisions have been delegated to others, notably Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, who are handling negotiations with Israel, Arab countries, Iran, Russia and Ukraine.
Marco Rubio has adapted his positions to work within the Trump administration. Previously, he supported immigration reform and aid to Ukraine; now he works within a team promoting different approaches. Some members of the Republican Party question his consistency.
At the same time, there are assessments that he helps to curb radical decisions. European governments consider him one of the few representatives of the administration with whom dialogue is possible. His influence, according to some assessments, has helped to preserve relations with allies and support for Ukraine.
At international forums, Marco Rubio displays a different style to JD Vance. During the Munich Conference, he presented the administration’s position in a more measured manner, which was well received by the audience.
In Latin America, he plays a prominent role in shaping policy. His first overseas visit as Secretary of State was dedicated to Central America and the Caribbean. He supported a tough policy towards Venezuela, which culminated in the removal of Nicolás Maduro.
Cuba remains the next focus. Marco Rubio has stated that the country needs not only economic change but also new leadership. At the same time, various approaches to further action are being discussed in the US.
In the Middle East, Marco Rubio has taken a tougher stance on Iran than J.D. Vance. This makes him more involved in decision-making whilst simultaneously increasing political risks.
The conflict with Iran has already affected the situation in the region and global energy markets. As National Security Adviser, Marco Rubio is responsible for coordination between government bodies on matters relating to the war and its consequences.
If successful, his position could be strengthened. If events take a negative turn, this could affect his political future.
Marco Rubio states that he is ready to support J.D. Vance in the 2028 election. At the same time, those close to him admit that he may consider standing for election at a later date.
