The failure of the Russian offensive: the occupiers have lost more territory than they have captured
This is reported by the ISW.
The pace of the occupiers’ advance has been steadily declining for over six months. Whilst at the start of 2025 the enemy was capturing an average of almost 10 square kilometres a day, this figure has now fallen to a critical 2.9 square kilometres.
Three reasons for the failure of the Russian offensive
Experts identify several key reasons why the occupiers’ ‘major offensive’ has finally faltered:
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Communications and command-and-control disruption. The decision to disable Starlink terminals for the Russians in February 2026, combined with restrictions on Telegram, dealt a devastating blow to logistics. Coordination between units has broken down, making large-scale attacks impossible.
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Exhaustion due to counter-attacks. Ukrainian forces have shifted tactics to active defence with constant medium-range strikes. Such tactics force the enemy to expend reserves on holding ground already captured, rather than on advancing.
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Natural factors. The winter of 2025–2026 proved to be significantly harsher and wetter than previous ones. An abnormal spring thaw effectively paralysed the occupiers’ heavy equipment, leaving the infantry without adequate support.
Infiltration tactics: the illusion of control
With no real successes to show for their efforts, the Kremlin is increasingly resorting to manipulation. Russian troops are using infiltration tactics: small groups of infantry seep into ‘grey zones’ where they cannot establish a foothold, but whose presence allows propaganda to report ‘advances’. In reality, these areas often remain under the fire control of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, and Russian infiltrators become easy targets.
Air force impasse
Despite the modernisation of aerial bombs, the enemy has faced a ‘staff shortage’. Due to a lack of engineers, who have been transferred en masse to infantry units to make up for losses, maintaining aircraft is becoming increasingly difficult. Furthermore, pilots often waste expensive munitions on secondary targets, indicating a lack of clear coordination with intelligence. The key question now is whether Russia will be able to regain momentum in the summer, when the ground dries out, or whether the current loss of territory will mark the beginning of a larger-scale retreat by the occupiers.
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