Putin believes that the Russian army will be able to fully capture the Donbas by autumn
Russia and Ukraine consider it unlikely that peace talks mediated by the US will resume, even after the war in the Middle East has ended. Sources familiar with the positions of both sides told the Financial Times as much.
According to the publication’s sources, Vladimir Putin has focused on seizing new Ukrainian territories by military means and plans to expand his demands once control over the Donbas has been established.
Meanwhile, in Kyiv, officials believe they have become less vulnerable to US pressure for a quick and unfavourable deal after successfully holding back the Russian advance and striking targets deep inside Russia with drones.
Last week, Donald Trump stated that the parties were “getting closer and closer every day” to a deal following a brief ceasefire. At the same time, Financial Times sources claim that neither Moscow nor Kyiv see any significant benefit in continuing the negotiations. US representatives deny that they have put pressure on Ukraine.
Ukrainian officials have stated that the negotiation process effectively reached an impasse back in February following the latest round of talks with Russia. Kyiv has also expressed dissatisfaction that Washington has failed to persuade Vladimir Putin to soften his demands.
“The American side has not achieved any progress with Russia. Everything that could be discussed has already been discussed,” said one Ukrainian official.
Russia stated last week that further talks would be pointless unless Ukraine withdrew from the Donbas, a significant part of which is under Moscow’s control.
One German diplomat stated that Russia continues to seek victory on the battlefield and is not backing down from its maximalist demands.
Despite this, Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Vladimir Putin are trying to keep Donald Trump engaged in the peace process.
On Monday, Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that the US remains engaged in the diplomatic process, although “it is obvious that the war in Iran is currently attracting the most attention from America and the US president”. “But there is also a priority to end this war in Europe and the support of the American people,” added the Ukrainian president.
Ukrainian and Russian officials met separately with Donald Trump’s special representatives Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. According to the publication’s sources, they may visit both countries.
Meanwhile, Vladimir Putin has rejected proposals for European mediation and Ukraine’s calls to hold a summit on neutral territory.
Last week, he proposed former German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder as a possible European mediator, calling him “a leader who is trusted and who has not said bad things about us”.
The European Union’s foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas, stated that it would be “not very wise” to allow Putin to choose a representative for Europe. According to her, Schröder’s closeness to the Kremlin means that “he will be sitting on both sides of the table”.
Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Andriy Sibiga stated that Ukraine “categorically does not support such a candidate”.
According to Financial Times sources, the Kremlin believes that despite strikes by Ukrainian drones and the slow pace of the advance, the Russian army will be able to fully capture the Donbas by autumn.
After that, Vladimir Putin plans to raise the price of a possible ceasefire by putting forward new territorial demands.
Vadym Skibitsky, Deputy Head of Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate, previously told the Financial Times that Russia’s success in Donbas would allow the Kremlin to demand the handover of the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions, which Moscow declared annexed in 2022, although parts of these territories remain under Ukrainian control.
During a meeting with Donald Trump in Alaska last summer, Vladimir Putin proposed freezing the front line in these regions on condition that his other demands were met.
According to the publication’s sources, Putin is increasingly focused on seizing Donbas, although he had previously suggested in private conversations that hostilities could cease along the current front line.
“I tried to persuade him to stop at the current front line. But he keeps saying: ‘No, I cannot compromise’,” said one of the interlocutors.
The publication notes that the Russian army’s advance remains slow, whilst Ukraine continues to strike at logistics, ammunition depots and Russian military bases.
Dmytro Putyata, a serviceman with Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces, stated that drone strikes on Russia’s rear and supply lines are causing problems with troop rotation and the supply of drones and ammunition.
Sources involved in informal talks on ending the war also believe that Vladimir Putin’s true ambitions may extend beyond his current demands to include control of territories on both sides of the Dnipro, as well as the capture of Kyiv and Odesa.
“He won’t capture Zaporizhzhia, he won’t capture Donbas, he won’t capture Kherson. But remember that the plan has always been to capture Kyiv. The task has been set and must be carried out,” said one of the publication’s sources.
On Saturday, Vladimir Putin also suggested the possibility of expanding Russia’s territorial claims.
Responding to a question about the need to create a “security zone” deeper into Ukrainian territory due to drone strikes, he said: “You have answered the question yourself. We must ensure that no one threatens anyone.”
