Russia is stepping up its covert mobilisation due to heavy losses in the war against Ukraine

The Russian authorities are increasingly resorting to covert forced mobilisation measures due to heavy losses on the front line and low recruitment numbers. This conclusion is contained in a report by the Institute for the Study of War.

Analysts have drawn attention to a decree issued on 20 March by Pavel Malkov, Governor of the Ryazan Region. According to the document, medium and large enterprises with between 150 and 500 employees must select between two and five staff members to sign contracts with the Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation. The decree will remain in force until at least 20 September 2026.

The report notes that this is a continuation of covert mobilisation measures aimed at avoiding a new compulsory conscription whilst simultaneously securing personnel for the war in Ukraine.

Experts also point out that the Kremlin is attempting to absolve itself of responsibility for such actions by shifting the duty of selecting candidates onto medium and large businesses.

The ISW notes that in January 2026, the level of recruitment into the Russian army was lower than the level of losses for the first time since 2022. Against this backdrop, the Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation is facing difficulties in finding new ways to replenish its personnel, as the effectiveness of one-off contract payments declined at the end of 2025.

Analysts believe that the Kremlin will continue to use phased, covert mobilisation measures in the regions, without resorting to large-scale forced mobilisation, to compensate for losses in the war against Ukraine.