The EU fears that Russia may attack Europe within the next 12 months – WSJ
This is according to The Wall Street Journal.
Several European officials responsible for national security have warned that Russia may attempt to test NATO’s unity by striking one of the Baltic states, Swedish or Danish islands in the Baltic Sea, or the alliance’s territory in the Arctic.
Furthermore, US President Donald Trump’s recent threats to withdraw from NATO and his moves to reduce American troops stationed in Europe are heightening the threat.
Senior European officials fear that Russia may see an opportunity to strengthen its position over the next 12 months, as the oil crisis caused by the war with Iran will create further political turmoil in Europe, bolstering far-right parties seeking to resume purchases of Russian oil and gas and halt aid to Ukraine.
According to representatives of European intelligence and military agencies, there are no signs that Russia is actually deploying troops or equipment to launch attacks on the Baltic states or other territories outside Ukraine.
However, Putin will face a difficult choice in the coming months. According to Western intelligence estimates, Russian forces are losing nearly 35,000 soldiers a month, which exceeds the Kremlin’s capacity to recruit personnel.
It is noted that continuing the war in Ukraine at the current rate will soon become impossible without resorting to compulsory conscription, and Putin will need to justify this move somehow.
"If you simply mobilise for this war, you will be sending a signal that you are not actually going to win this war. Therefore, there comes a point when they need to escalate the situation to justify mobilisation. And this is a very dangerous moment. Of course, no one can see what is going on in Putin’s mind, but this could be a calculated move to push forward and change the trajectory of this war,” said Kaja Kallas, the EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy.
At the same time, as the WSJ notes, Putin continues to claim that victory is near, and there are no signs that his strategic goal – domination over the whole of Ukraine and a shift in the balance of power in Europe – has changed in any way, despite the problems Moscow is facing on the battlefield.
For Russia, the EU is now an implacable enemy that must be punished or destroyed.
The publication notes that Russian troops would likely perform far better against European armies than against Ukraine, especially if the US does not rush to the rescue. Although, to initiate such an escalation, Russia would first have to bolster the ranks of its army.
“Mobilisation is, technically, entirely feasible; their mobilisation system is well-established. But it would also create serious internal problems and pressure, which could then lead to various interesting consequences. It would be a risky decision for Putin,” said Kaupo Rosin, Director of the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service.
At the same time, senior German MP Norbert Röttgen believes that the idea of breaking the deadlock in Ukraine by expanding the war to NATO countries in the Baltic states may be tempting, but dangerous for Putin.
"It would be a huge and additional risk for Putin – after failing to achieve sufficient success against Ukraine, simply adding another very powerful adversary to the military conflict," he noted.
At the same time, Röttgen acknowledged that Putin is known for his propensity for risky actions and is capable of escalating the conflict.
Follow us on Telegram
