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The Kremlin has begun to suspect that the war against Ukraine has reached an impasse

The Kremlin has begun to suspect that the war against Ukraine has reached an impasse

22 May 2026, 18:17

The Kremlin has begun to suspect that the war against Ukraine has reached an impasse — The Kremlin

Ukraine and its Western partners are growing increasingly confident about the situation on the front line, as the Russian offensive is losing momentum and the Kremlin is facing not only military but also domestic challenges.

This is reported by Bloomberg, citing Ukrainian officials, diplomats and sources close to the Russian authorities.

According to the publication, Ukrainian forces have managed to stabilise a significant portion of the front line following the intensification of hostilities in the spring. One of the key factors has been the widespread and effective use of Ukrainian drones, which are inflicting increasingly heavy losses on the Russian army both on the front line and in the Russian rear.

Ukraine’s Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov stated that in April the Russian army lost over 35,000 troops killed or seriously wounded. According to him, the Ukrainian strategy is to inflict at least 200 casualties on the occupiers for every square kilometre of advance.

Bloomberg sources note that even among the Russian elite, nervousness is growing. Some senior Kremlin officials believe the war has reached a deadlock and has no obvious end in sight.

At the same time, according to Bloomberg, Putin wants to end the war by the end of the year – but only on terms that Moscow would consider ‘victorious’. This refers, in particular, to full control over the Donbas and de facto international recognition of the occupied territories.

Separately, analysts point to a deterioration in sentiment within Russia itself. Due to the protracted war, economic difficulties, internet disruptions and increasingly frequent Ukrainian strikes, war fatigue is growing among Russians. Following the massive drone attacks on Moscow, some Russians have begun openly accusing Putin of allowing the war to “come home”.

Finnish President Alexander Stubb previously stated that the ratio of casualties on the front line currently stands at approximately one Ukrainian soldier to five Russian soldiers. A similar assessment was recently voiced by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who described the Ukrainian army as “the strongest in Europe”.

Despite this, the situation for Ukraine remains difficult. Kyiv is warning of the possibility of a new Russian offensive from the territory of Belarus and the Bryansk region, and is also facing a shortage of ammunition for the Patriot systems, which remain a key defence against Russian ballistic missiles.

Nevertheless, the West believes that Russia will not be able to continue the war on its current scale without a new wave of mobilisation. According to experts, this will be yet another serious test for the Kremlin.

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