BBC: "Trump is taking a big risk"

Tetiana Bodnarenko
Tetiana Bodnarenko Journalist
BBC: "Trump is taking a big risk"
At night, the USA attacked the three largest nuclear sites in Iran in Fordo, Natanz, and Isfahan. How will the entry of the USA into the war against Iran affect the world and Ukraine.

President Trump announced the bombing on his social media platform Truth Social, stating that he coordinated the attack on Iran with Congress, BBC reports.

In a statement from the White House, Trump declared that all targeted uranium enrichment facilities have been "completely destroyed." He also issued an ultimatum to Iran - peace or "much larger" subsequent attacks.

During the night and morning of Sunday, Iran attacked Israel with rockets. The strikes hit residential buildings in Tel Aviv, resulting in over 80 people being hospitalized.

Iran acknowledged the attacks but stated that the damages are not critical and promised to continue enriching uranium.

Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said at a Sunday press conference that he expects to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on Monday. Moscow has so far limited itself to diplomatic statements regarding the conflict between Iran and Israel.

At the same time, Iran's loyal allies - the Houthis - have already declared their support.

"We will respond to any aggression directed against us or any Islamic country. Arab and Islamic peoples must act because the US wants to change the entire Middle East," said Houthi Politburo member Mohamed al-Bukhaiti in an interview with Al Jazeera.

A day earlier, the group threatened to attack American ships passing through the Red Sea if America enters the war.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu thanked Trump for his "bold decision," which will help the Middle East "enter an era of prosperity."

Opposing countries condemned US actions, while America's traditional allies such as Britain, Japan, Australia, and others expressed much milder statements. They called for peace but emphasized the danger coming from Iran.

Meanwhile, analysts are contemplating the geopolitical consequences of the strikes.

Will they truly end the conflict between Iran and Israel, or perhaps even lead to the fall of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's regime? Or, on the contrary, could they ignite a war in the Middle East with significant political and economic repercussions?

But for Ukraine, the main question is how Russia will react to this. Will Trump's actions further free Moscow's hands, or does it mean the US will now step back from the peace process, as Trump no longer assumes the role of peacemaker?

Additionally, is Trump's choice of June 22 for the strikes on Iran a symbolic signal to the Kremlin?

This is what analysts in Ukraine and around the world are pondering.

End or escalation of the conflict?

The main global reaction is that Trump is taking a huge risk by involving the US in a war between Israel and Iran.

Donald Trump, returning to the White House in January, promised to be a "peacemaker," to end wars, and not to start new ones, reports BBC North America correspondent Anthony Zurcher.

But instead of bringing peace to the Middle East, Trump has become entangled in regional affairs, which are on the brink of an even larger war - and America is actively participating in it.

Donald Trump's swift action reflects his style of foreign policy. He prides himself on being unpredictable. Today's strikes confirm this - only his closest circle knew about the president's plans.

But does this mean the end of the conflict?

According to Joe Floto, head of the Middle East bureau at BBC, if these targets are indeed neutralized, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may declare that he has achieved his main military goal.

Israel has always claimed it can independently destroy Iran's nuclear program, but it is no secret that only America has the powerful weapons capable of penetrating the strongest defenses, primarily in Fordo, built deep inside a mountain.

However, last week Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei promised to retaliate against the US if they go to war.

"Americans should know that any US military intervention will undoubtedly have irreparable consequences," he said.

So, can these strikes trigger an even more deadly phase of the war?

Meanwhile, more Israeli officials, including Netanyahu, are talking about regime change in Iran.

There is hope that the bombing will lead to movement against Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, ultimately resulting in the overthrow of the Islamic Republic, which has been in power since the 1979 revolution, reports BBC Middle East correspondent Hugo Bachega.

This pushes Iran into a survival mode. The country has repeatedly rejected any agreement that would involve abandoning uranium enrichment on its territory, claiming it is their right.

Now, in the weakest position in nearly fifty years, Iranian leaders will face international pressure to accept an agreement. But an alternative could be an escalation of conflict, leading to the end of Khamenei's rule and an uncertain future for the country, Bachega suggests.

Implications for Ukraine

The key question Ukrainian analysts are discussing is whether Trump's actions will serve as a catalyst for Vladimir Putin towards even greater escalation.

"Will Moscow use the US and Israel's arguments to proceed with the industrial destruction of Ukrainian cities, arguing that 'dirty bombs' are being assembled under Odessa, Kyiv, Kharkiv, or Zhytomyr?" - writes Viktor Shlinchak, head of the Institute of Global Politics.

Because now, any terrorist acts can be attributed to "American tactics."

Many have noted the symbolic significance of the date of the American strikes - June 22, the day Nazi Germany attacked the USSR during World War II. Kremlin propaganda actively uses these events to justify its attack on Ukraine.

"It's hard to say whether Americans deliberately chose this symbolic date. But we can be sure that in the Kremlin, it will be perceived as 'a subtle hint at heavy circumstances,'" writes journalist Vadym Denysenko.

The Kremlin has always looked at the "resolute acts" of the West, notes Maksym Maiorov, analyst at the Center for Strategic Communications and Information Security.

"Recognition of Kosovo, invasion of Iraq... These are what truly inspire Russians to say 'we can repeat.'

According to Maiorov, US strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities will change the game even more than the SBU's 'Spider Web.'

"Of course, Russia does not possess such destructive non-nuclear weapons as the US. But if, suddenly, the Fordo facility still had some political (not purely technical) restrictions on waging war against Ukraine, they no longer exist," concludes the analyst.

Entering the war in the Middle East may also mean that Trump has finally abandoned plans to become the world's chief peacemaker, believes Serhiy Sydorenko, editor-in-chief of "European Truth."

"The lack of need for peaceful achievements and the Nobel Peace Prize gives more room for unpredictable actions, leaving options open. And unpredictability is a sphere where Trump is especially strong," analyzes Sydorenko.

Thus, the US withdrawal from the peace process is a very real possibility, and Trump's pressure on Ukraine, even if harsh, becomes more plausible.

At the same time, he believes this strike is a bad signal for Putin, as it shows what Donald Trump is capable of. This reduces the likelihood of a Russian nuclear strike on Ukraine even in the event of some severe developments.

Escalation in the Middle East also suggests rising oil prices, reminds Viktor Shlinchak.

"For Putin, oil prices are money for war. Without a price cap, Russia will have funds to fill its military budget," says the analyst.

According to journalist and politician Vadym Denysenko, if everything goes according to a mild scenario, meaning Iran does not respond with harsh actions, Trump will improve his ratings.

"In this context, it will be very difficult for the sanctions anti-Russian coalition (Ukraine, leading EU countries, and some influential Republicans) to pressure Trump before the Congressional election campaign."

In a negative scenario, Denysenko predicts, energy prices will sharply rise, and the US will face huge problems in the Middle East. This could also negatively affect the ability to pressure Trump on this issue.

Ostap Yarysh, a journalist specializing in the United States, also draws attention to the internal political consequences for the US.

"Republican leaders in Congress - Mike Johnson and John Tunn - welcomed the attack. Meanwhile, leading Democrats condemned it, calling the operation unconstitutional because the president did not coordinate the bombing with Congress," writes Yarysh.

This decision is too important for the United States, as strikes on Iranian facilities could lead to a much larger escalation and draw the US into a war in the Middle East.

Some isolationist Republicans also issued direct or indirect criticism of the attack, but they are currently in the minority, notes the journalist.

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