WELT explained why it will not be possible to ramp up production of Patriot missiles in Ukraine quickly
The possibility of manufacturing missiles for the Patriot systems in Ukraine could be an important step towards strengthening air defence, but it will not be possible to ramp up such production quickly. This is according to WELT.
During the NATO summit, US President Donald Trump stated his willingness to allow Ukraine to produce missiles for the Patriot system independently. At the same time, as defence experts point out, implementing such a project is considerably more complex than it might appear.
According to missile analyst Markus Schiller, it could take between one and two years from the start of production to the delivery of the first finished missiles. He suggests that Ukrainian companies could manufacture individual components, such as engines, whilst the complex electronics would be supplied from the US.
WELT points out that there are only a few production sites worldwide that manufacture Patriot missiles under an American licence. In Japan, it took around five years to get such production up and running. In Germany, construction of the first European plant began in 2024, with the first deliveries expected in 2027.
To organise production, it is necessary to agree on the transfer of technology from the US, set up a specialised company, import specialised equipment, certify suppliers and establish production lines. Even with political support, experts estimate that this process could take at least a year.
Another unresolved issue is exactly which variant of the missiles Ukraine will be able to produce. The options are the PAC-2 missiles with a fragmentation warhead or the more modern PAC-3 missiles, which destroy targets with a direct hit. It is the PAC-3 missiles that are designed to intercept ballistic missiles and have already been used by Ukraine against ‘Iskander’ and ‘Kinzhal’ missiles.
However, Lockheed Martin, the manufacturer of the PAC-3 missiles, has not previously supported full-scale production of this variant in Europe. As a result, it is not yet known whether Ukraine will be granted authorisation specifically for the production of the PAC-3.
The article also notes that Ukraine currently relies heavily on supplies of foreign missiles, whilst global production volumes of the Patriot system remain limited. According to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, approximately 60–65 such missiles are produced worldwide each month, which is insufficient to meet Ukraine’s needs.
Domestic production could shorten supply chains, speed up repairs and reduce dependence on allies. However, experts stress that even after obtaining a licence, this would not allow the shortage of interceptor missiles to be quickly resolved, so Ukraine will continue to require ready-made supplies.
