Ahead of his visit, Putin cut the price of gas for China to its lowest level in six years
The Russian authorities have lowered their estimates for the price of gas sold to China from next year and revised their forecast for pipeline gas exports to other countries. This is stated in a document obtained by Reuters.
The revision of forecasts comes against a backdrop of worsening assessments of the Russian economy and the oil and gas sector. This is putting further pressure on the Russian budget, which is already under strain due to rising military spending and a deficit.
The updated estimates form part of the forecast for Russia’s socio-economic development up to 2029, which has not yet been published.
According to the Russian government’s forecast, exports of Russian pipeline gas to countries outside the former Soviet Union will fall to 75 billion cubic metres this year, compared with 78.2 billion cubic metres last year. By 2027, the figure could rise to 82.5 billion cubic metres.
Forecasts for 2028 and 2029 have also been revised downwards to 82 billion and 84.5 billion cubic metres respectively. In the previous forecast, published in September 2025, 87 billion cubic metres were expected for both years.
The European Union plans to completely phase out imports of Russian gas by November 2027. Turkey, which is not an EU member, has currently extended its gas contracts with Russia for 22 billion cubic metres for just one year.
After 2027, Russian gas supplies to China could rise by 47% compared to current levels and reach 56 billion cubic metres per year. This is linked to the launch of a new Far Eastern route with a capacity of 12 billion cubic metres per year and an increase in supplies via the ‘Power of Siberia’ pipeline by 6 billion cubic metres.
At the same time, China pays less for Russian gas than European countries and Turkey; this is due to the specifics of pricing, which is linked to oil rather than spot prices at European hubs.
Having lost most of the European market, China has become the largest market for Russian gas.
The Russian authorities expect the export price of gas to China to be on average 30% lower than for the European market.
The forecast also reduces estimates for export prices of pipeline gas to China in 2027–2029 by more than 7% compared to the previous forecast. The expected price is $224–236 per thousand cubic metres.
If gas supplies to Turkey remain at current levels and exports to China grow in line with existing contracts, Russia’s budget revenues from gas sales could remain close to 2025 levels by 2030. This will depend on transport costs, the rouble exchange rate and taxes.
