Bread prices in Ukraine could rise by 25%, and some food items by as much as 50%: the reasons explained
This was stated by Denis Marchuk, Deputy Chair of the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council.
What has the greatest impact on the price of bread
According to the expert, wheat accounts for only 20–25% of the cost price of bread. The main costs are:
- energy;
- logistics;
- wages.
In the context of the war, all these components have become significantly more expensive. The market is also affected by currency fluctuations, as some equipment and materials are purchased abroad – in euros and dollars.
How much prices might rise
Commenting on the forecast for a possible rise in prices this autumn, Marchuk confirmed that such a trend is entirely realistic.
“In 2026, we will see bread prices rise by an average of 25%,” says the expert.
At the same time, Oleksandr Taranenko, first vice-president of the All-Ukrainian Bakers’ Association, expressed a different view in a comment to RBC-Ukraine.
According to him, there are no grounds for a sharp price hike or shortages this summer. Due to disruptions to the energy infrastructure and the use of generators during the heatwave, he does not rule out only a slight increase across the entire range of products, within 5% (by 1–1.5 UAH per loaf). However, if the energy situation remains stable, prices will be kept in check.
What will happen to other products
At the same time, if the situation on the food market remains uneven, some goods may become even more expensive.
According to Marchuk, certain categories of products could see price rises of up to 50%, whilst others will, conversely, become cheaper due to a seasonal increase in supply.
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