Forecasts for GDP and inflation in Ukraine are set to worsen due to the impact on the energy sector
Oleksiy Sobolev announced this in an interview with RBC-Ukraine. In its April inflation report, the National Bank had already revised down its GDP growth forecast for 2026 to 1.3% and is forecasting inflation of 9.4% by the end of the year.
The government plans to review Ukraine’s macroeconomic and social development indicators in the middle of the year.
According to Oleksiy Sobolev, Minister of Economy, Environment and Agriculture, the forecast is reviewed annually, but this time GDP growth expectations will be lowered.
“We always review the forecast mid-year. Currently, our budget is based on 2.4% GDP growth; the forecast will be lowered because we had negative GDP in January and February,” Sobolev said in an interview with RBC-Ukraine.
He cited, in particular, the negative impact of winter shelling on the energy sector as the reason for the downgrade.
Earlier, Sobolev also reported that Ukraine’s GDP had contracted by approximately 1.2% in the first two months of 2026. At the same time, the government expected economic activity to recover going forward.
What the NBU forecasts
The National Bank of Ukraine has already downgraded its economic growth forecast for 2026.
In its April inflation report, the NBU lowered its expected real GDP growth to 1.3%.
The regulator attributed this to further damage to infrastructure, greater electricity shortages and the effects of a significant rise in energy prices.
At the same time, the NBU expects economic growth to accelerate in 2027–2028.
According to the National Bank’s forecast, GDP could grow by 2.8% in 2027 and by 3.7% in 2028.
As for inflation, the NBU forecasts a temporary acceleration to 9.4% in 2026.
In the following years, the regulator expects inflation to return to a downward trend: to 6.5% by the end of 2027 and to 5% in 2028.
How attacks on the energy sector have affected the economy
Winter attacks on energy infrastructure have been one of the key factors behind the deterioration in economic expectations.
The Centre for Economic Strategy noted in its February review that in January and February the situation in the energy sector deteriorated due to intense Russian shelling and adverse weather conditions, which affected all sectors of the economy.
The NBU also pointed out that the increase in the electricity deficit following the Russian strikes has a negative effect on economic growth. According to the regulator’s estimates, this factor will cost Ukraine part of its GDP growth in 2026.
International aid will remain the key source of funding for the budget deficit.
According to the NBU, over $53 billion in international support is expected in 2026.
Follow us on Telegram
