The main threats to the US: Russia, China, Iran, North Korea and Pakistan
The Director of National Intelligence of the United States, Tulsi Gabbard, stated that China, Russia and North Korea view the United States as a strategic competitor and potential adversary, whilst Iran has long regarded the US as an adversary and is currently in a state of active conflict with Washington.
She also noted that Russia, China, North Korea, Iran and Pakistan are developing new and conventional missile delivery systems with nuclear and conventional warheads capable of reaching US territory. According to US intelligence estimates, the number of such missiles could rise to over 16,000 by 2035, compared to the current level of over 3,000.
Intelligence believes that China and Russia are working on systems capable of penetrating or bypassing US missile defences, whilst North Korea already possesses intercontinental ballistic missiles and continues to expand its nuclear arsenal. Pakistan is also estimated to be developing long-range missiles that could potentially reach the US. It is noted that these states may combine high-tech systems with cheaper means to overwhelm missile defence.
At the same time, US intelligence has concluded that Iran is not rebuilding the uranium enrichment capacity destroyed during US and Israeli strikes in 2025. “As a result of Operation Midnight Hammer, Iran’s uranium enrichment programme was completely destroyed,” Hubbard stated in written testimony to the Senate Intelligence Committee, adding that since then “there have been no attempts to rebuild their uranium enrichment capabilities”.
During the hearings, she did not repeat this assessment publicly and, in response to a senator’s question, noted that she had not had sufficient time to review the full text of the statement, but did not dispute the conclusions set out therein.
Gabbard also stated that Iran’s leadership remains in power, although it has suffered significant losses. “The regime in Iran remains unchanged, but is significantly weakened as a result of attacks on its leadership and military capabilities,” she said. According to her, if it retains power, Iran may embark on a long-term rebuilding of its military, missile and drone forces.
Separately, she noted that Russia retains the upper hand in the war against Ukraine and is likely to continue hostilities until agreements are reached. At the same time, she warned of the risks of escalation, which could lead to the use of nuclear weapons.
Hubbard also stated that China is rapidly modernising its armed forces with the aim of potentially establishing control over Taiwan, whilst intelligence assesses that Beijing prefers to achieve this without direct conflict.
President Donald Trump had previously justified the strikes on Iran as necessary to prevent an ‘imminent threat’, although the International Atomic Energy Agency and other observers did not confirm the existence of an immediate threat of nuclear weapons development.
