Inflation in Ukraine has risen to 8.6% amid rising fuel and logistics costs
This was reported by the State Statistics Service.
Core inflation, which excludes the most volatile components, also rose – to 7.6% from 7.1% a month earlier.
On a monthly basis, inflation in April stood at 1.4%, whereas in March it was 1.7%.
The largest price increases were recorded in the transport sector. Transport costs overall jumped by 19.1% year-on-year and by 4.7% month-on-month.
Prices for fuel and lubricants rose by 36.1% compared with April last year. Transport services became 20.1% more expensive.
In particular, road passenger transport rose by 20.8% over the year, and rail fares by 14.3%.
The State Statistics Service explains that the main reason was the rise in oil and logistics costs against the backdrop of the war in the Middle East.
The National Bank of Ukraine expects inflation to continue rising in the second quarter and could reach 9.4% by the end of 2026.
The regulator also notes that prices are being affected by the weakening of the hryvnia – the exchange rate has risen from around 42 to 44 hryvnia per dollar – high energy prices and rising wages.
The NBU’s baseline scenario envisages a gradual easing of tensions in the Middle East and a fall in the price of Brent crude to around $80 per barrel by the end of the year. In an alternative scenario, the war in the region will drag on, and oil will remain above $100.
Prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages rose by 9.6% year-on-year in April.
The biggest monthly price increases were seen in:
- bread and bakery products – by 5.2%;
- sugar – by 3.6%;
- sunflower oil – by 2.7%.
At the same time, eggs fell in price by 3.4% over the month, although they are still 19% more expensive than a year ago. Prices for butter also fell.
Prices in restaurants and hotels rose by 13.9% year-on-year, and telecommunications services by 15.7%.
Utility tariffs remained almost unchanged thanks to fixed prices for electricity and gas for the population.
As a reminder, the National Bank previously issued an economic forecast for 2026–2028.
Follow us on Telegram
