ISW explains Oreshnik strike in Lviv region as an attempt to intimidate Western allies

Russian strike with the Oreshnik ballistic missile on the western regions of Ukraine was aimed at putting political and psychological pressure on Kyiv's partners. This is stated in a new report by the Institute for the Study of War.

Analysts note that the Kremlin deliberately chose to target the westernmost part of the country, in particular the Lviv region, to prevent Europe and the United States from forming effective security guarantees for Ukraine after the war. The report notes that this strike was part of a broader nuclear intimidation strategy aimed at reducing Western military support and deterring the possible deployment of foreign troops in Ukraine under a future peace agreement.

The ISW notes that the Russian Ministry of Defence tried to justify the attack as a response to an alleged Ukrainian drone strike on the residence of Vladimir Putin in Valdai on the night of 28-29 December. At the same time, Western media, citing the Central Intelligence Agency, reported that there was no attempted attack, which is fully consistent with the ISW's findings.

Analysts also link the use of Oreshnik to the active work of the so-called coalition of the willing, which recently agreed on the details of post-war security guarantees for Ukraine, including the possible deployment of foreign troops. The Kremlin has repeatedly stated that such steps are unacceptable and that foreign troops in Ukraine will be treated as legitimate military targets.

The ISW suggests that the use of a missile capable of carrying a nuclear warhead and equipped with several MIRV warheads was intended to directly intimidate coalition members. It was an attempt to prevent the deployment of forces that could enter Ukraine from the west and operate far from the front line.

The analysts recalled that Russia first used Oreshnik against Ukraine in November 2024, positioning it as a response to the strikes of Ukrainian forces with ATACMS and Storm Shadow missiles on military targets in the Russian Federation. Then, as now, Moscow's key goal, according to ISW, was to reduce the scope and resolve of Western military support for Ukraine.

Photo: SBU