When prices will fall and GDP will rise: The National Bank has issued a forecast for 2026–2028
Find out what is happening in Ukraine’s economy right now and what the NBU’s forecast is for the coming years in this article by ThePublic.
Inflation and prices in Ukraine: when to expect a slowdown
According to the NBU, price growth accelerated to 7.9% in March, and this trend continued in April. The main reasons are the consequences of attacks on the power grid and rising fuel prices due to the conflict in the Middle East.
Inflation trajectory according to the NBU forecast:
- 2026: peak of 9.4% due to the cumulative effects of the war.
- 2027: start of a steady decline to 6.5%.
- 2028: return to the target rate of 5%.
Economic activity (GDP): from slowdown to acceleration
The start of 2026 proved challenging: a combination of Russian attacks on logistics and an exceptionally cold winter hit businesses hard. As a result, the NBU was forced to lower its GDP growth forecast for this year to 1.3%.
However, a recovery is expected from next year onwards: in 2027–2028, real GDP is set to grow by 2.8–3.7% annually.
This will be facilitated by the economy’s gradual adjustment and international support.
A financial ‘safety net’ and the role of the West
External aid remains a key factor for stability. Uncertainty regarding funding has significantly decreased thanks to new decisions by partners:
- EU: €90 billion released (Ukraine Support Loan).
- IMF and G7: funding confirmed under the EFF and Extraordinary Revenue Acceleration programmes.
Thanks to these funds, Ukraine’s international reserves will remain at a high level – $60–67 billion. This gives the NBU full control over the foreign exchange market and the ability to maintain the stability of the hryvnia.
Risks and hopes for positive scenarios
Main threats:
- Continued war and potential further destruction of logistics and energy infrastructure.
- Unpredictability of events in the Middle East, affecting global prices.
Is there a positive trend for the economy?
Despite the war, there is a possibility of optimistic scenarios unfolding. These are linked to Europe’s increasingly active involvement in Ukrainian affairs, which could lead to increased military aid and progress towards a just peace.
As a reminder, at the start of 2026, the National Bank noted that high lending rates to businesses and households remained stable.
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