Russia increasingly reliant on foreign mercenaries due to heavy losses on the front line
Russia is increasingly relying on foreign fighters in its war against Ukraine, as its army is suffering more losses than it can compensate for with new recruits. This was stated by British Defence Minister John Gilli on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference.
According to Hilliard, over the past two months, Ukraine has inflicted more losses on Russia than the Kremlin has been able to replace through mobilisation and contract soldiers. In such circumstances, Moscow is forced to recruit thousands of foreigners, including citizens of India, Pakistan, Nepal, Cuba, Nigeria and Senegal. Separately, the British minister estimated the number of DPRK military personnel involved in combat operations on the side of the Russian Federation at approximately 17,000.
According to him, many foreigners are recruited under false promises or under pressure, without explaining the real conditions of service on the front line. Gille emphasised that this indicates a weakening of Moscow's position, despite the narrative of its inevitable victory.
The front line, which stretches for about 1,200 kilometres, has remained relatively stable for a long time, and there have been no significant territorial changes since the first year of the war. At the same time, according to Western officials, Russia could suffer about 430,000 casualties in 2024, compared to about 415,000 last year. Total losses during the war have exceeded 1.2 million people.
In December, the average level of Russian losses was estimated at 1,130 people per day, and could reach 35,000 per month. This is partly attributed to the more active use of Ukrainian drones. Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleksandr Syrskyi previously stated that due to the massive use of drones, the zone of active combat operations had expanded by 15 or even 20 kilometres.
During a conference in Munich, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that in January alone, about 30,000 Russian soldiers were killed. According to Bloomberg, in January, Russia's losses exceeded its ability to replenish its forces by about 9,000 people.
Ukrainian Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov outlined the goal of bringing the Russian army's losses to 50,000 per month by the summer. Western officials believe that in such a scenario, the Kremlin would have to announce a new wave of mobilisation. The previous mobilisation of 300,000 reservists in 2022 led to a mass exodus of citizens from the country and growing discontent within Russia.
Despite significant losses, Russian troops continue to advance in certain areas of the front, particularly in the Pokrovsk and Mirnograd regions of Donetsk Oblast. Rocket and drone strikes on Ukraine's energy infrastructure also continue, leading to interruptions in heat and water supply in low temperatures.
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer noted in Munich that even if a peace agreement is reached, Russia could accelerate its rearmament, creating additional risks for Europe. Western officials believe that thanks to recruitment campaigns, industrial support and assistance from other countries, particularly China, Russia is capable of sustaining combat operations until at least 2026.
At the same time, according to British estimates, in some areas of the front, the ratio of losses could be between 6 and 25 Russian soldiers for every Ukrainian soldier. Gilli stressed that despite the Kremlin's attempts to demonstrate the inevitability of victory, Russia is now weaker than before and more dependent on external resources.
