Russia is concealing catastrophic economic losses caused by sanctions – intelligence reports
Russia is suffering catastrophic economic losses as a result of international sanctions, according to internal estimates cited by Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service.
These figures are confirmed by the Latvian Security Service (SAB), which has published an assessment of internal calculations. These suggest that the Russian economy is drowning in sanctions, suffering losses in key sectors.
According to the SAB, in the years 2022–2025 alone, Russia was forced to spend an additional $130 billion – around $32.5 billion annually – on circumventing sanctions and purchasing banned Western goods, which it had previously bought at significantly lower prices.
According to internal forecasts by Russian institutions, by 2030, losses from Western restrictions will amount to at least a further $136 billion. The total reduction in foreign trade will be $175.5 billion.
Latvian intelligence emphasises that these figures are significantly underestimated and overly optimistic. The real impact of sanctions, taking into account indirect consequences – rising logistics costs, falling corporate profitability, losses in budget revenue and structural problems – could be several times greater.
In the energy sector alone, potential losses over five years are estimated at $216.5 billion if the EU imposes a full embargo and China, India and Turkey cut their purchases of Russian oil and gas.
Exports of key commodities are already showing a catastrophic collapse. Iron ore has fallen by 40%, ferrous metals by 20%, and chemical products by 35%. Timber and pulp have been hit hardest, down 50%. Russian analysts themselves admit that it will not be possible to recover these markets within the next five years.
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