Russia claims advances in Sumy region, attempting to create illusion of front collapse

Russia continues its so-called cognitive warfare campaign, using isolated cross-border attacks in previously inactive border areas of northern Ukraine to create the impression in the West that the Ukrainian front line is collapsing. This is according to a report by the Institute for the Study of War.

Analysts point to a statement by the Russian Ministry of Defence on 8 February, which claimed that the village of Sydorivka, northwest of Sumy, had been captured. Similar information was disseminated by a Russian military correspondent, who described these actions as an attempt to create a buffer zone in the north of the Sumy region.

At the same time, the ISW has not found any visual evidence to support the Russian military's claims. Sydorivka is located east of Komarivka, an area that has remained inactive for a long time. It was there that Russian troops began cross-border attacks in December 2025.

Another Russian military correspondent, who is likely associated with the Northern Group of Russian Forces, announced plans to create more than 20 assault groups. According to him, they are to be formed from units of the 2nd Motorised Rifle Regiment of the Strategic Missile Forces for an offensive deep into the Sumy region from the areas of Bila Bereza and Komarivka.

Analysts note that at the end of December 2025, the Kremlin intensified its cognitive campaign, using limited attacks in the border areas of the Sumy and Kharkiv regions to create an informational effect and influence possible negotiations to end the war. Claims of the capture of the villages of Hrabove, Komarivka, Bila Bereza, and Popivka in the Sumy region, as well as advances towards Sotnytskyi Kozachok in the Kharkiv region, are likely part of this strategy.

The report notes that ISW has not found any signs of significant Russian troop advances toward operationally important targets following the likely capture of small border settlements. Analysts also do not see Russia preparing for a large-scale offensive from northern Ukraine.

ISW continues to assess that the Kremlin is attempting to present these limited actions as the beginning of a broad offensive in order to reinforce the narrative of Russia's inevitable victory in the war. According to analysts, this is intended to exert psychological pressure on Ukraine and its Western partners with the aim of forcing them to make concessions under the threat of alleged future escalation.