Russia may be planning provocations against the Baltic states or Poland because Ukraine has stepped up its attacks — media reports
The Guardian reports this, citing Western sources.
This does not refer to an invasion, but to missile or drone strikes on Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania or Poland.
The aim of these provocations is to put pressure on Ukraine’s allies and to test how NATO would respond to a threat to the countries on its eastern flank.
According to Western sources, the risk of such provocations has increased following Ukrainian strikes on targets in Moscow and St Petersburg. The Kremlin may attempt to escalate the war in order to force the West to scale back its support for Ukraine.
Keir Giles, an expert at the British think tank Chatham House, stated that Moscow will seek any means to turn the tide of the war in its favour. According to him, one should not expect Russia to ‘passively accept defeat’.
It is worth recalling that Russian drones have already flown into other countries on several occasions. For example, on the night of 10 September 2025, Poland shot down several Russian drones for the first time; these had strayed into Polish airspace during an attack on Ukraine. At the time, airports in Poland were closed, and the authorities described the incident as an “act of aggression”.
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