Sweden has named Russia as the main threat to security and warned of the risk of escalation
In its annual report published on Tuesday, Sweden's Military Intelligence and Security Service recorded a number of examples of aggressive behaviour by Russia in areas neighbouring Sweden, particularly in the Baltic Sea. Among such actions, the document mentions airspace violations, sabotage and cyber attacks.
The report emphasises that Russia is the primary military threat to Sweden and NATO. The threat assessment is described as serious and concrete, and Moscow's behaviour is described as opportunistic and aggressive.
The Swedish assessment came after Estonia's Foreign Intelligence Service named Russia as a threat in its annual review last week, despite its incompetence. At the same time, the Estonian document warned against panic and noted that it saw no evidence of Russia's intention to attack Estonia or NATO in the coming year. It also suggested that an attack was unlikely in the near future given the strengthening of defences in Europe.
During a closed briefing attended by POLITICO representatives, a senior NATO official expressed a similar position. According to him, protection is provided by the strength of the Alliance and the conviction of both allies and Russia in the effectiveness of Article 5, as well as the recent commitments of NATO countries to increase defence spending to 3.5 per cent of GDP. He added that it is precisely such investments that deter Russia.
At the same time, both the Estonian report and the NATO representative noted that Russia has sharply increased its production of artillery, so it will remain a threat even if peace is achieved in Ukraine. Estonian intelligence said Moscow was preparing for the next war and estimated a 17-fold increase in the production of shells and other artillery since the start of the full-scale invasion, which is now in its fifth year. A NATO representative emphasised that such capabilities cannot be shut down in a single day after the end of the war and suggested that in some areas, Russia may emerge from the war stronger than it was at the start.
