Ukraine is entering the new season with substantial wheat stocks and a positive harvest forecast
This is according to UkrAgroConsult.
Over the first 11 months of the marketing year, Ukraine exported 12.35 million tonnes of wheat. At the same time, the forecast for total exports by the end of the season has been raised to 13.5 million tonnes.
Despite the high pace of shipments, the country will enter the new season with significant grain stocks. Analysts believe that this factor will have a noticeable impact on market balance and the price situation in the 2026/27 marketing year.
Favourable weather conditions are also supporting positive expectations for the harvest. Moderate temperatures, sufficient rainfall and moisture reserves are creating good conditions for crop development in most agricultural regions.
Currently, the forecast for wheat production in Ukraine remains at around 23 million tonnes.
At the same time, forward grain prices are holding close to current market levels, despite large stocks. This suggests that the market is factoring in risks related to the geopolitical situation, potential changes in global supply and rising demand from importers.
In the new season, competition is expected to intensify among countries in the Black Sea region, which are traditionally key suppliers of wheat to the global market.
The main export destinations for Ukrainian grain will remain North African and Asian countries. Egypt, Algeria and Indonesia continue to feature among the largest buyers of Ukrainian wheat.
Analysts also note a gradual recovery in price dynamics in the spring, but stress that the future situation will largely depend on the global balance of supply and demand and the level of competition in export markets.
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