Ukraine needs another 250,000 troops to turn the tide of war, according to Western sources
Tuesday marks four years since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion. After months of gradual advancement, Russian troops are close to capturing a number of strategic positions in the so-called "fortress belt" and are expanding their control in the Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions. This was reported by The Public with reference to The Sunday Times.
Western military sources note that Ukrainian forces are inferior in numbers and equipment in almost all areas of the front, particularly near Lyman and Siversk. Russian troops continue to advance towards Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.
There are estimates that Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad may already be under the control of Russian forces, with the exception of isolated pockets of Ukrainian resistance. The city of Huliaipole in the Zaporizhzhia region, according to sources, is almost completely controlled by Russia.
If Russian troops advance beyond Huliaipole, the city of Zaporizhzhia could find itself within range of FPV drones. A similar situation is observed in Kherson, where drones and shelling have killed more than 3,000 civilians.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said at the Munich Security Conference that Ukraine lost about 42 square miles of territory in the 30 days of January and February. The Institute for the Study of War reported that in the first two weeks of February, the Russian army captured approximately 203 square kilometres.
According to the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, Russia lost about 415,000 military personnel killed and wounded last year, and since the start of the full-scale war, its losses have reached 1.2 million. Ukraine's losses since 2022 are estimated at 600,000.
Ukrainian Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov said that in December, Ukrainian forces killed or seriously wounded more than 35,000 Russian soldiers. He expressed his intention to bring this figure to 50,000 per month and noted that in December and January, Russia suffered more losses than it was able to replenish.
At the same time, sources in the United Kingdom believe that in the best-case scenario for Moscow, the war could last another 18 months with an additional 500,000 casualties to capture the rest of Donbas. In the worst-case scenario, this period could reach four years and nearly two million casualties.
According to a NATO source, Ukraine needs at least 250,000 additional troops and significantly more powerful weapons to win or achieve a significant breakthrough.
This month, the European Parliament approved a €90 billion loan for Ukraine, of which €60 billion is earmarked for military procurement.
Trilateral talks mediated by the US gave hope for a possible ceasefire, but the second day of the latest round ended after two hours. Volodymyr Zelensky called them difficult.
Kurt Volker said that Vladimir Putin is not showing any interest in the peace process. In his opinion, a ceasefire is only possible if economic pressure on Russia is increased, in particular through sanctions against the oil and gas sectors.
According to the Russian Ministry of Finance, energy revenues fell by about a fifth last year. Oil and gas exports fell by 25 per cent.
