The latest data from the regulator’s survey on business expectations for the first quarter of 2026
The All-Ukraine Business Expectations Index (BEI) rose to 105.8% (compared to 102.1% in the previous quarter). At the same time, the balance of expectations regarding production growth is finally at +0.6%, which suggests that optimism is returning; however, it is certainly too early to celebrate.
Behind the overall figure of 105.8% lies regional heterogeneity, which we cannot afford to ignore when formulating state policy. The point is that, at present, businesses in Ukraine, depending on the region, face different factors that directly influence their operations.
Below are the figures by region (broken down according to the methodology for assessing military-economic zoning developed by the Kyiv School of Economics (KSE) and the Ministry of Economy of Ukraine):
The western border region is the driver of economic growth overall. Businesses are relocating here from frontline and border regions, and new logistics chains are being established here. As a result, it is here that the highest business expectations regarding production are recorded: Volyn Oblast (+76.9%), Zakarpattia (+69.2%), Lviv (+61.5%).
Inland regions: the structure of the local economy and access to markets play the greatest role in business activity here. Cherkasy region shows a fall in expectations of -50.0%, and Poltava region of -8.5%. At the same time, Khmelnytskyi region (+26.8%) and Ternopil region (+28.6%) are showing growth in business expectations.
Businesses in frontline and border regions operate under the most challenging conditions. Expectations regarding product sales in Zaporizhzhia are negative (-5.6%), whilst in Sumy region, production expectations stand at -17.3%. At the same time, businesses continue to invest in equipment (Zaporizhzhia - +33.3%, Chernihiv region - +15.4%). However, these investments are in fact directed not towards expansion, but towards adaptation and security, specifically generators, the relocation of capacity within the region, and protection.
Regarding the situation in the labour market. Pessimism regarding employment across the country as a whole has eased somewhat (balance -1.8% compared to -3.8% in the previous quarter). However, the gap between regions remains significant.
The regions with the highest demand for workers are: Lviv (+22.0%), Chernivtsi (+18.2%), Volyn (+15.4%) and Kyiv. At the same time, demand for staff is lowest in Sumy (-50.0%), Chernihiv (-46.2%) and Zaporizhzhia (-42.1%) regions.
Undoubtedly, we cannot apply a single universal scenario to the whole country. While in the western regions the focus should be on scaling up, infrastructure and stimulating exports, in the frontline territories the task is fundamentally different – to maintain the basic capacity of businesses simply to exist and operate.
However, the main problem we must focus on is the labour shortage. It cannot be solved with money (cheap loans or subsidies), and without the return of the population, systematic retraining and incentives to retain staff, frontline regions risk getting stuck in survival mode with no chance of post-war recovery. That is precisely why the search for effective solutions that take these realities into account must be our priority today.
