Why is Trump looking for a way out, whilst Putin continues the war of attrition?

A long time ago, back in our second year, we were attending a lecture when the lecturer introduced the so-called ‘Rule of Timely Exit’. This referred to a strategy for cutting losses in business — a stop-loss — which often helps an entrepreneur save their capital, time and what little nerve they have left, if a project is consistently making losses and has exhausted its potential for growth. The logic is simple: at some stage, it’s better to exit the business to avoid incurring further losses and to focus on something else. Because it’s more beneficial to limit risks and protect capital from catastrophic losses than to cling to the hope that one day everything will be recouped. There are various options: selling the business, restructuring, selling a stake to partners or, if things are really bad, winding up and closing the business.

 

Why am I bringing this up? Because Trump is applying precisely this business logic to the situation with Iran. He can see that the ‘war with Iran’ project is unprofitable and isn’t giving him what he wants, and he cannot achieve the desired result within the timeframe available to him. And he realises that withdrawing from this war in its current state will not bring him any benefits, but he also realises that continuing to fight means incurring further ‘losses’: financial, reputational, electoral and human casualties amongst Americans. So he applies the ‘Rule of Timely Withdrawal’. And now he needs to achieve a result in another ‘project’ on which he will focus. But to do that, he needs success. This could be the situation with Ukraine, Cuba or any other ‘projects’. It is cynical, but it corresponds to the facts.

 

And yet we are witnessing Putin’s actions and decisions being the exact opposite. He, too, cannot achieve the desired result in Ukraine, but instead of withdrawing from the war, acknowledging that he cannot win, he continues to fight, much like a compulsive gambler hoping to recoup his losses and so betting on black and red again and again, losing everything and hoping that the next bet will pay off. The reason is that whilst Trump is guided by business logic, Putin’s mind is governed by the logic of a Soviet official, who is indifferent to cost and losses because they are not his personal losses. Putin will only stop when he is no longer able to wage war. Not when the cost of the war becomes too high for him, but when the ability to wage it disappears. Only then will he withdraw, because there will be no resources left. And that will be the end of Russia. It seems that at the KGB academy, he was not taught economics or introduced to business processes, which is why he fails to recognise his mistake. That is precisely why, unlike Trump, he does not realise the full extent of the damage Russia is suffering as a result of this war. This concerns the economy, demographics and the social sphere. He has long been blinded by his dream of destroying Ukraine’s independence and restoring the USSR. But not only does he have a poor grasp of economics, he is also ignorant of history and fails to realise that he has already doomed his empire to ruin. The problem is simply that he is dragging Ukraine down with him.

 

Yes, we are witnessing a classic war of attrition. And the key thing here is to remember that the only thing that can realistically force Putin to end the war as quickly as possible is stabilising the front line and crippling the Russian economy. Everything else is a red herring: the desire to look Putin in the eye, the hope that one’s own charisma will help persuade him, and the belief in negotiations, despite the fact that the Kremlin still has the resources to wage war. It is important here to take a sober view of the situation, to avoid complacency and not to fall prey to illusions, as has happened time and again. We must not spin fairy tales about coffee in Crimea, but rather ramp up drone production and increase the number of strikes. It is also vital not to lose the support of our partners. Because in a war of attrition, resources are paramount. And without partners, Ukraine cannot survive.

 

As for Putin… He really is a maniac. We must not harbour the notion that he will want to end the war of his own accord. We must be guided by the understanding that he will only do so under pressure. So we must do everything to achieve a result, not for the sake of publicity or personal gain. And this is the only strategy that can yield results.

Original source: the author’s Facebook page