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A substantial bet on Putin being removed from power has appeared on Polymarket

Boris Bodnar
Boris Bodnar Journalist
A substantial bet on Putin being removed from power has appeared on Polymarket
Vladimir Putin
A bet of $400,000 has been placed on the Polymarket platform that, by the end of 2026, the head of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin, will lose his presidential seat.

Forbes reports on this.

As a reminder, Polymarket is an online prediction market where users can place bets on the probability of various events using cryptocurrency. Anyone can place bets, and the topics are varied — economic forecasts, political issues, sport, pop culture and so on.

Due to repeated allegations regarding the publication of insider information on the platform, bets on Polymarket have come to be viewed as a kind of ‘prediction’ system.

A bet on Putin stepping down from power was placed by an account with the nickname ZnotluvuiSamez, featuring a profile picture showing the Ukrainian flag. This user has placed several bets relating to Russia and Ukraine, but the largest to date is a ‘Yes’ bet worth $409,000 on the question: ‘Will Putin cease to be President of Russia by 31 December 2026?’.

Bookmakers estimate there is only a 12 per cent chance that Putin will lose his seat, even if he is not re-elected by 2030. However, if the bet wins, the user could receive up to $2.5 million.

The second-largest bet — $61,000 — is on Ukraine regaining Crimea by the end of 2026. The market estimates that this outcome has only a 12 per cent probability.

It is reported that the mysterious bettor joined Polymarket in April this year, and their account is linked to a blank page on the social media platform X.

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