India, Azerbaijan and Botswana have spoken out against Russia’s actions
This has been reported by the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine.
The SSU described the reactions of the three states as diplomatic demarches against Russia. Official statements, however, indicate varying levels of these measures: India and Azerbaijan summoned Russian diplomats, whilst the Botswana government warned its citizens against recruitment schemes to take part in the war.
India lodged a protest over the deaths of four of its citizens
On the evening of 19 July 2026, the dry cargo ship MV Golden Leo, which was leaving the port of Odesa, was attacked. Four Indian nationals who were on board the vessel were killed as a result of the attack.
The Indian Ministry of External Affairs summoned the Russian chargé d’affaires and lodged a strong protest with him. The Indian side condemned the attack on the commercial vessel and emphasised that the loss of civilian lives was unacceptable.
The Indian Defence Intelligence Agency (SZRU) claims that the vessel was attacked with Russian cruise missiles. Official Indian reports confirm the attack itself, the deaths of the citizens and the protest lodged with the Russian side; however, the wording provided by the Ministry of External Affairs does not specify the type of weaponry used.
Ukrainian intelligence considers New Delhi’s strong reaction to be indicative of relations between the two countries, which have long maintained a close political, military and economic partnership. The assessment that India is distancing itself further from Moscow comes from the Ukrainian Security Service.
Azerbaijan has lodged a note of protest with Russia over the attack on SOCAR
On the evening of 5 July, a Russian drone attacked a petrol station belonging to the Azerbaijani state-owned company SOCAR in the Mykolaiv region. The following day, the Azerbaijani Ministry of Foreign Affairs summoned the Russian ambassador, lodged a strong protest and handed over a note.
Baku demanded a full investigation, an explanation of the circumstances of the attacks, and compliance with international obligations regarding the protection of civilian facilities and diplomatic missions.
The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) interpreted this move as further evidence of Russia’s loss of influence in the South Caucasus. This is the assessment of Ukrainian intelligence, whilst the summoning of the Russian ambassador and the delivery of a note of protest are confirmed facts.
On 21 July, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev also stated that the country was ready to increase oil and gas supplies to Europe. According to him, Azerbaijan already sells gas to ten European Union member states, and export volumes could be significantly increased following the expansion of pipelines and the securing of funding.
At the same time, Aliyev’s official statement does not contain a promise to “completely replace Russia” on the European oil and gas market, as phrased by the State Security Service of Ukraine. The President of Azerbaijan spoke of the possibility of significantly increasing gas exports to Europe, particularly to Germany, if the infrastructure is expanded.
Botswana warns of citizens being recruited for war
Botswana’s Ministry of International Relations has reported an increase in cases of fraudulent recruitment of citizens to travel to Russia. People are offered jobs, educational programmes or security training; however, upon arrival, they may be forced to take part in hostilities against Ukraine.
The government has urged citizens to verify any overseas job offers through state authorities and diplomatic missions. The authorities have also warned that the ability to provide consular assistance to people who are already in Russia or on the front line is extremely limited.
Botswana’s statement was not a note of protest to the Russian authorities. It is an official warning to citizens and a notice regarding dangerous recruitment schemes linked to travel to the Russian Federation.
What the statements from the three countries mean
India, Azerbaijan and Botswana have reacted to different events and employed different diplomatic mechanisms. New Delhi condemned the deaths of its citizens and summoned a Russian diplomat; Baku issued a note in response to the attack on the SOCAR facility; and Gaborone warned about the recruitment of people for the war.
The SSU believes that these incidents demonstrate growing mistrust of Russia in regions where Moscow is attempting to maintain political, economic or military influence. According to intelligence assessments, the Kremlin’s aggressive actions are limiting its diplomatic options in Asia, the South Caucasus and Africa.
Follow us on Telegram.
