Ukrainian traders are redirecting cargo from the Black Sea to the Danube
This has been reported by the Association of International Freight Forwarders of Ukraine.
According to the association, the first signs of recovery have appeared on the Danube – some wheat and other cargoes are gradually being redirected there. However, exporters are in no hurry to compensate for the loss of the maritime route at any cost and are adopting a wait-and-see approach, relying more on the resumption of port operations than on more expensive overland logistics. There has been no sudden shift of cargoes either to the Danube or to western road crossings.
Industry sources note that, despite the availability of alternative logistics routes, they are unable to fully replace the capacity of the Greater Odesa ports, which handled nearly 97.2 million tonnes of cargo in 2024 – an average of 8.1 million tonnes per month.
Exports to the EU by rail and road are limited by the capacity of border crossings and the rail infrastructure. According to analysts at Barva Invest, the maximum monthly shipment volume in this direction was approximately 900,000 tonnes per month.
As noted by Ukrainian Shipping Magazine, the Danube could theoretically provide a throughput capacity of 1.3 million tonnes per month, however, this route is also at risk: it is currently constrained by shallow draught due to falling water levels (5.5 metres at the Bystre estuary), vulnerable access bridges and a shortage of vessels following a prolonged period of inactivity.
The port of Constanța in Romania could once again become a key route for Ukrainian cargo, but it is entering its own peak season with its own commitments – which means that Ukrainian cargo will have to compete for barges, storage capacity, rail transport and handling times.
It should be noted that, according to Reuters, Ukraine has lost approximately a third of its capacity to export grain via Black Sea ports due to Russian strikes. The Danube ports and the railway remain alternative routes, but they cannot quickly replace all sea transport.Ukraine has requested an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council on 27 July due to Russian attacks on civilian vessels and the threat to international food trade.
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