Oil exports from the Persian Gulf have fallen sharply following the resumption of attacks between Iran and the US
Following Iran’s attacks on ships – after which US President Donald Trump declared the ceasefire over and the United States launched strikes on Iranian territory – shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has virtually ground to a halt.
According to Bloomberg, on Thursday there was virtually no ship traffic on the route along the southern coast of Oman, which is supported by the US and the UN’s International Maritime Organisation. Only one supertanker left the Persian Gulf to enter the Strait of Hormuz.
The decline in activity began as early as Wednesday, when around 20 vessels passed through the strait in both directions. According to Kpler, in the three weeks following the agreement between the US and Iran to reopen the route, the average daily figure stood at 34 vessels, with a peak of 59 vessels recorded on 24 June. Before the war began, around 135 vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz every day.
Despite the reduction in shipping traffic, Iran continues to export oil. Over the past 24 hours, four supertankers and one smaller tanker have transported a total of 11 million barrels of oil. According to Bloomberg’s estimates, this roughly corresponds to the pre-war weekly export volume.
At the same time, it is unclear whether this oil will find buyers or remain on board the tankers, which could be used as floating storage facilities. The day before, Donald Trump revoked the licence that had temporarily suspended the sanctions and allowed the purchase of Iranian oil.
The price of Brent crude, which had risen above $80 per barrel on Wednesday, fell to $76.8 on Thursday.
According to estimates by ING Bank, at the end of June, tankers were transporting around 6–7 million barrels of oil per day out of the Persian Gulf. The bank believes that, given the redirection of some export flows by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates via pipelines, it would be sufficient to increase supplies to around 14 million barrels per day to return to pre-war volumes.
