US Republicans fear losing Senate in November elections

The US Republican Party is increasingly considering the scenario of losing its majority in the Senate in the November elections. This was reported by Axios, citing conversations with leading GOP strategists who have seen internal party polls. Republicans currently control the Senate with a narrow majority of 53 seats to the Democrats' 47.

The party acknowledges that the situation is much more complicated than expected a year ago. According to one Republican operative who reviewed the closed polls, while victory in the Senate seemed almost guaranteed earlier, this outcome now looks increasingly uncertain.

Problems for the GOP are evident not only in traditionally competitive states such as Michigan, Maine and North Carolina, but also in conservative regions. In particular, polls show a tight race in Alaska, Iowa and Ohio. At the same time, the very issues of immigration and the economy, which played a key role in Donald Trump's victory in the 2024 election, are now increasingly seen by Republicans as weaknesses.

Alarm bells rang at a closed meeting of Republican senators this week. Senator Tim Scott, chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, presented data indicating a difficult campaign, particularly in Maine, where incumbent Senator Susan Collins may face serious challenges in her re-election bid.

The situation in Texas is of particular concern to the GOP. If incumbent Senator John Cornyn loses the party primary to Attorney General Ken Paxton, Republicans believe this could pave the way for a Democratic victory in the general election. Although Democrats have not won a statewide election in Texas in over 30 years, the party no longer dismisses such a scenario, especially after the recent defeat of Republicans in the special state Senate election.

The situation in Georgia also remains difficult. Popular Governor Brian Kemp's refusal to run for the Senate has weakened the GOP's position in the fight against incumbent Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff. Ossoff has already raised more than $25 million for his campaign, far exceeding the financial capabilities of his potential Republican rivals.

At the same time, the Republican Party emphasises that it is too early to draw final conclusions. The primary campaign is just beginning, and Democrats may field weaker candidates in a number of states. In addition, the leading pro-Republican supercommittee has almost three times more funds than its Democratic counterpart, and the Trump-affiliated supercommittee MAGA Inc. has accumulated about $304 million. Major donor Elon Musk has also begun to provide significant financial support to conservatives.