What does the war in Iran mean for Ukraine?
European capitals fear that the US operation against Iran will change the priorities of the White House and the Pentagon, as well as affect support for Ukraine. President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Monday that if fighting in the Middle East continues, it will definitely affect arms supplies. This was reported by The Public with reference to Politico.
According to him, the relevant weapons systems, in particular air defence missiles, are critically important for Ukraine. He noted that if the conflict drags on, it will affect supplies.
US President Donald Trump said that the war with Iran could last four or five weeks, but he is prepared for a longer campaign. Some analysts warn of the risk of a wider conflict, from which it will be difficult for the US to extricate itself.
Representatives of European governments point out that significant quantities of missiles, including interceptors, have already been used. This means that US stocks will need to be replenished and that opportunities to sell missiles to Europe and Ukraine may be reduced.
In Kyiv, American PAC 3 interceptors for Patriot systems are considered key to repelling Russian missile attacks. European states do not have sufficient reserves and are simultaneously developing their own defence capabilities, but this process could take years.
Zelensky said it is too early to draw conclusions about the impact of the Middle East conflict on arms supplies. He stressed that Ukraine will do everything possible to ensure domestic financing and maximise the use of its own production.
Former Deputy Minister of Defence Kateryna Chornogorenko wrote on Facebook that drone developers and electronic warfare specialists must join forces to avoid shortages. She called on Ukrainian defence companies to purchase 12 to 24 months' worth of critically important components, noting that the situation in the Middle East could quickly escalate into a supply crisis.
Despite concerns, negotiations to end Russia's war against Ukraine are continuing. US Special Envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met with Ukrainian representatives in Geneva last week. Trump also spoke with Zelensky ahead of planned trilateral talks involving Russia.
Zelensky said that the next meeting was planned for 5 or 6 March in Abu Dhabi, but due to events in the Middle East, this has not yet been confirmed. He suggested that the talks could be moved to Turkey or Switzerland and stressed that the meeting must take place.
Russia has carried out large-scale attacks on Ukraine in recent days. According to the Institute for the Study of War, on the night of 25-26 February, Russian troops launched 420 drones and 39 missiles. Ukrainian air defences shot down 374 drones and 32 missiles.
The crisis surrounding Iran has already affected Ukraine's European integration process. A meeting planned in Cyprus on further steps towards EU membership was postponed after an Iranian drone struck a British airbase on the island.
At the same time, not everyone in Ukraine believes that the conflict with Iran will weaken Kyiv's position. The head of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on Foreign Policy, Oleksandr Merezhko, said that strikes against Iran could deprive Russia of an important ally and arms supplier. He also noted that Ukraine and the United States are on the same side in the confrontation with authoritarian regimes.
Deputy Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on National Security and Defence Yegor Chernev said that the war with Iran would take place in parallel with peace talks on Ukraine. According to him, the risk for Kyiv would arise only if the campaign dragged on without results, which could weaken attention to Ukraine.
