Should you buy dollars now? Experts assess the exchange rate outlook
This is reported in a TSN article, citing Ukrainian economists and financial analysts.
Oleg Pendzin, an expert at the Economic Discussion Club, believes that deposits and domestic government bonds can currently generate a higher return than buying foreign currency.
According to his calculations, if one were to buy dollars worth 10,000 hryvnias at the start of 2026 at an exchange rate of 42 hryvnias per dollar, the profit by the end of the year could amount to around 905 hryvnias, provided the exchange rate rises to 45.8 hryvnias.
At the same time, a bank deposit at 13.8% per annum could yield around 1,110 hryvnias in net income, whilst domestic government bonds at 15.3% per annum could yield approximately 1,530 hryvnias.
Why some experts advise buying currency
Financial analyst Andriy Shevchyshyn notes that the strategy of regularly buying small amounts of currency is gradually beginning to pay off.
In his view, it is practically impossible to predict short-term exchange rate fluctuations, so the best option remains the gradual accumulation of foreign currency over a long period.
At the same time, the expert advises waiting for the exchange rate to stabilise or for signs of a decline to appear, after which one should continue buying dollars.
Who is this currency strategy suitable for?
According to Shevchyshyn, buying currency is a long-term strategy designed to last at least one to two years.
It is therefore more suitable for saving than for making a quick profit from exchange rate differences.
Why they advise not to rush
Andriy Zablovsky, Head of the Secretariat of the Council of Entrepreneurs under the Cabinet of Ministers, recommends waiting at least a week to assess the further dynamics of the currency market.
In his view, if the hryvnia does not continue to depreciate, buying or selling currency may be justified. If, however, the exchange rate continues to rise, it is better to refrain from purchasing currency.
What are the exchange rate forecasts?
Taras Lesovyi, Director of the Financial Markets and Investment Department at Globus Bank, forecasts that by 21 June the dollar exchange rate will remain within the range of 44.4–45.1 hryvnia.
Andriy Shevchyshyn, meanwhile, expects the official exchange rate to be in the range of 44.45–44.95 hryvnia per dollar, and the cash rate to be 44.65–45.25 hryvnia.
The euro exchange rate, in his estimation, may fluctuate between 51.75 and 52.5 hryvnia.
What investors should bear in mind
Experts emphasise that the choice between foreign currency, deposits and government bonds depends on the investor’s objectives, the investment horizon and risk appetite.
For short-term savings, hryvnia-denominated instruments may be more attractive, whilst foreign currency is traditionally seen as a way to protect savings in the long term.
Follow us on Telegram
